How did US suicide deaths change from 2019 to 2021?

1. What happened to suicide counts and rates 2019→2021

Final and provisional National Vital Statistics reporting shows suicide rates declined from 13.9 per 100,000 in 2019 to 13.5 in 2020, then increased about 4% to around 14.0–14.1 in 2021; CDC described the 2021 rise as the end of two consecutive years of decline ^{[1] [2]}. Multiple CDC products use the same ICD‑10 codes and age‑adjusted methods so these year‑to‑year differences are directly comparable in the agency’s reporting ^{[4] [5]}.

2. How big is that increase in practical terms

The change from 13.5 to ~14.0–14.1 per 100,000 represents a modest absolute rise but is notable because it reversed a two‑year downward trend; CDC characterized the 2021 increase as a 4% rise from 2020 ^{[2] [1]}. KFF and AFSP also summarize that declines slowed in 2019–2020 and that suicides began rising again in 2021 and 2022, with firearms driving much of the later increases ^{[6] [7]}.

3. Age, sex and subgroup context — not uniform across the population

CDC reporting emphasizes variation by sex and age: male suicide rates fell in 2019–2020 but rose again in 2021 to levels similar to 2018 for men, and female rates followed different patterns by age group ^{[1] [8]}. The CDC data briefs and MMWR analyses break trends down further by race/ethnicity and age (including youth 10–24), indicating that population subgroups experienced different trajectories from 2019 through 2021 ^{[1] [8]}.

4. Why did rates dip then climb — competing interpretations

Public health reporting notes that suicide rates sometimes stabilize or fall during acute disasters and later rise as long‑term consequences (economic, social isolation, substance use) appear — the CDC explicitly cites historical precedent (e.g., post‑Katrina) and cautions that pandemic sequelae could produce delayed increases ^[3]. Other analyses (KFF, AFSP) point to rising firearm suicides as a driver of the increases seen after 2020, though causes remain uncertain and multifactorial ^{[6] [7]}.

5. Data quality and provisional caveats

CDC releases for 2021 were provisional; the agency highlights that provisional counts for the first half of 2021 were similar to first half 2020 but that monthly differences existed later in the year, and it uses age‑adjustment to compare years ^{[3] [5]}. Analysts and advocates note that single‑year changes should be interpreted cautiously and that final data and subgroup breakdowns can change with updated reporting ^{[4] [5]}.

6. What this means for prevention and policy debates

CDC and prevention groups frame the 2021 uptick as a signal to intensify prevention — with data‑driven, multi‑sector strategies prioritized for disproportionately affected populations — and they stress monitoring methods (firearm access, ED visits for self‑harm) and resource expansion such as crisis lines ^{[3] [6] [7]}. KFF highlights the role of firearms in driving later increases (2021–2022) and AFSP points to emergency department nonfatal self‑harm trends as part of the broader picture ^{[6] [7]}.

7. Limits of current reporting and what’s not answered here

Available sources document the overall rate changes and some subgroup patterns but do not settle causation — they note plausible contributors (pandemic stressors, substance use, firearms) and historical analogies, yet say definitive causes for the 2021 rise are unclear in current reporting ^{[3] [6]}. If you’re seeking state‑level, monthly, or fully finalized 2021 counts by detailed demographic slices, CDC provisional notes and data briefs point to where those tables exist, but “available sources do not mention” some specific causal mechanisms beyond the general risk factors cited ^{[5] [8]}.

Bottom line: after modest declines in 2019–2020, U.S. suicide rates rose in 2021 by about 4% (to ~14.0–14.1 per 100,000), reversing a brief downward trend and prompting public‑health calls for intensified, targeted prevention efforts ^{[1] [2]}.