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Which US demographic groups saw the largest suicide rate changes 2019–2023?
Executive summary
Overall U.S. suicide rates fell slightly from the 2018 peak into 2019 (a 2.1% national decline) and then continued to decline into 2020 before rising again by 2021 and remaining near 2022–2023 levels (13.9 in 2019 to ~14.1–14.2 in later years) [1] [2] [3]. Available reporting highlights the largest subgroup increases since 2019 among non‑Hispanic Black and Hispanic people and among certain female and youth subgroups for firearm suicides (large percent increases for Black youth and big rises in gun suicide rates for Black and Hispanic females), while non‑Hispanic White rates declined over that span [4] [5] [6].
1. National trend: a dip in 2019 then mixed movement through 2023
After a long rise culminating in a 2018 peak, CDC reporting finds suicide rates declined about 2.1% in 2019 and again into 2020, then increased in 2021 and held near that level through 2023—so the nationwide picture from 2019–2023 is not a single large swing but a modest decline followed by recovery to near-peak levels [1] [2] [3].
2. Race and ethnicity: increases among Black and Hispanic people, declines among White people
CDC analyses and reviews indicate that from 2018–2023 suicide rates increased for non‑Hispanic Black and Hispanic individuals while decreasing for non‑Hispanic White people; the CDC’s notes explicitly state rates “increased among non‑Hispanic Black or African American and Hispanic or Latino persons and decreased among non‑Hispanic White persons” in the 2018–2023 window [4] [6].
3. Youth and age patterns: declines in some youth ages but alarming subgroup spikes
Although CDC reporting notes decreases for persons aged 10–24 across the broader period, other sources and targeted analyses show rapid rises in firearm suicides among Black youth (ages 10–19), with gun suicide rates for Black youth more than tripling since 2014 and increasing sharply since 2019—an 81% increase from 2019–2023 for Black youth by one report [4] [5].
4. Gender differences: overall male rates remain much higher but female firearm suicides have surged in some groups
Males continue to have substantially higher crude suicide rates than females (CDC figures show males far outnumber females in suicide deaths), but the largest percentage increases since 2019 for gun suicides occurred among certain female groups—reports cite a 65% increase in gun suicide rate for Black females and a 25% increase for Hispanic females between 2019 and 2023 [7] [5].
5. Firearms as a driver: rising firearm suicides align with subgroup changes
Analysts link much of the post‑2019 increase in suicides among some populations to rising firearm suicides; Johns Hopkins’ summary of CDC data highlights that firearm suicides were a major driver and that increased gun ownership beginning in 2020 aligns with rapid increases in gun suicides among particular demographic groups [5].
6. Geographical and occupational context: regional and job-based variation exist
Longstanding geographic differences persist (higher rates in many Western and rural states), and certain occupations show elevated suicide rates; however, the specific largest 2019–2023 occupational changes are not comprehensively reported in the current sources—available sources do not mention a definitive, ranked list of occupations with the largest 2019–2023 changes [8] [9].
7. How to interpret percentage changes versus absolute risk
Percent changes can look dramatic in small baseline groups (for example, a 65% rise in gun suicide among Black females is large in percentage terms), but absolute rates and counts matter for public‑health impact; CDC data present age‑adjusted rates to help compare groups, and those show very high absolute rates for American Indian/Alaska Native and White non‑Hispanic males in 2023 even as other groups’ rates rose [7] [4].
8. Limitations in the available reporting and remaining questions
CDC and peer‑reviewed sources cover 2018–2023 trends but differ in emphasis; some reports focus on overall year‑to‑year changes, others on method (firearm) or subgroup (race, age, sex). Available sources do not provide a single, exhaustive table ordering demographic groups by absolute or percentage change from 2019–2023, so statements about “largest changes” require picking either percent change or absolute rate change and acknowledging both metrics [1] [5] [4].
9. Policy and research implications: targeted prevention where rates rose fastest
Given the pattern—rising suicide and firearm‑suicide rates among non‑Hispanic Black and Hispanic populations and sharp increases among Black youth and Black and Hispanic females—public health experts argue for targeted prevention (means‑restriction, youth mental‑health access, culturally tailored interventions); the research literature and public‑health briefings referenced here frame motive (worsening mental health, economic stressors) and means (firearms) as leading contributors requiring focused responses [10] [5] [4].
If you want, I can extract the specific CDC rate values for each racial/ethnic and age/sex subgroup in 2019 and 2023 from the underlying CDC tables so you can see absolute vs percentage changes side‑by‑side (noting that those tables are the best way to quantify “largest” changes).