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How do life expectancy trends in the US compare to Canada, the UK, and Australia over the last 20 years?
Executive summary
Over the last two decades the United States has trailed peer Anglophone countries — especially Australia and Canada — in life expectancy, with studies finding the U.S. the worst performer among six high‑income English‑speaking countries from the early 2000s through 2019; Australia generally ranks highest and Canada often second‑highest in that group [1] [2]. Recent year‑by‑year estimates and aggregations show the U.S. in the high‑70s range while Australia and Canada sit in the low‑to‑mid‑80s in some datasets, although different data sources and the COVID‑19 period create important year‑to‑year volatility [3] [4] [5].
1. U.S. life expectancy has lagged its Anglophone peers for years
Multiple peer‑reviewed analyses find a persistent shortfall: a 1990–2018/2019 comparison of six high‑income English‑speaking countries (U.S., UK, Canada, Australia, Ireland, New Zealand) reports that the U.S. has been the worst performer every year since 2001, with the UK often the next lowest in the most recent decade and Australia generally the best performer [1] [2]. Independent summaries and coverage echo that pattern and link it to adverse trends in younger‑ and middle‑age mortality in the U.S. [1] [6].
2. Magnitude and ranking depend on data series and year (COVID‑19 matters)
Life‑expectancy comparisons hinge on which year and which dataset you pick. National series and global projections diverge, and the COVID‑19 pandemic produced a visible dip in 2020–2021 followed by partial rebounds; that makes short windows misleading. Macrotrends reports U.S. life expectancy around 78–79 years for 2023–2024 while country pages show Australia and Canada higher in 2023–2024 and 2024 estimates [3] [4] [5]. The BMJ Open study covers 1990–2019 and therefore captures the long‑run shortfall pre‑pandemic [1].
3. Which ages drive the U.S. shortfall — not just the elderly
The studies identify elevated mortality in younger adult age groups as a major contributor to the U.S. gap: deaths between ages 25–64 account for a large share of the U.S. life‑expectancy shortfall versus peers, with external causes (overdose, injuries), chronic disease and socioeconomic inequality implicated as drivers [1] [2]. That means the gap is not simply because Americans die earlier in old age but because mid‑life mortality has been unusually high.
4. Australia’s and Canada’s advantages: consistent higher rankings, but not immune to setbacks
Australia has been the best performer in these Anglophone comparisons since the early 1990s and often posts the highest life expectancy at birth and age‑65 figures; Australia’s official agencies note that its recent life‑expectancy estimates were affected by COVID‑19‑period mortality but remain relatively favorable versus Canada, the UK and the U.S. [1] [7] [8]. Canada frequently ranks second among those countries in long‑run comparisons [1] [2].
5. Data caveats and measurement differences you must watch
Comparisons rely on differing national reporting practices and occasional breaks in series: for example, OECD and national offices note breaks or estimate differences (e.g., Canada series breaks, U.K. 2023 as an estimate for England & Wales), and some public summaries use UN projections that can differ from national vital‑statistics updates; the sources explicitly warn numbers may not be directly comparable without attention to methodology [9] [9]. The BMJ Open analysis uses consistent mortality databases for 1990–2019, offering robust trend comparisons pre‑COVID, but does not cover pandemic years in its published window [1].
6. Competing explanations and policy implications in the literature
Researchers cited in the sources point to a mix of causes: higher external‑cause mortality (drug overdoses, suicides, injuries), worse mid‑life chronic‑disease trends, and structural socioeconomic and health‑system differences (less universal coverage, larger inequalities) as contributors to U.S. underperformance; commentators also highlight that countries like Australia benefit from different public‑health policies and social safety nets [1] [10] [6]. Alternative viewpoints in reporting emphasise that short‑term reversals (pandemic spikes, reporting differences) can change rankings in particular years, so policy lessons should rest on multi‑decade patterns rather than a single year [1] [9].
7. What the available sources do not mention or resolve
Available sources do not mention a full 2005–2025 year‑by‑year table that directly lines up U.S., Canada, U.K. and Australia in one harmonized series through 2024–25 in this packet; they also do not settle precise numerical gaps for every year in the last 20 years without consulting the underlying national life‑tables (not included here) [9] [3]. To produce a single consistent 2005–2025 chart would require accessing the national life‑tables/OECD/WHO files underlying these summaries.
8. Bottom line for readers
Across multiple peer‑reviewed and official data sources, the United States has underperformed Australia and Canada in life expectancy over the past two decades, largely due to elevated mid‑life mortality; year‑to‑year rankings shift with pandemic effects and methodological choices, so robust conclusions rest on multi‑decade trends and careful attention to which data series you use [1] [3] [4].
If you want, I can pull the specific national life‑table estimates (by year) from the OECD/CDC/Statistics Canada/ONS/ABS series cited in the chart collection so you can see the exact annual gaps across 2005–2024.