Fact check: What are the official USDA/FNS statistics on SNAP work participation rates and employment status through 2025?

Executive Summary

The USDA/FNS does not publish a single, consolidated national SNAP work‑participation or employment‑status rate through 2025; official federal reporting instead provides fiscal‑year enrollment snapshots, policy guidance, state‑level ABAWD exemption allocations, and state options reporting that together serve as proxies for work‑requirement activity and employment among recipients. The most recent FNS participation report covers FY2022 (published February 2025), FNS issued guidance implementing H.R. 1 changes effective July 4, 2025 with a limited enforcement grace period through November 1, 2025, and FNS released FY2025 discretionary ABAWD exemption allocations—so analysts must synthesize these documents alongside CBO projections and the FNS State Options reports to infer trends in work participation and employment status ^{[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6]}.

1. Why you won’t find a single “SNAP work‑participation rate” in USDA/FNS publications — and what FNS provides instead

USDA/FNS does not publish a consolidated national percentage of SNAP recipients who meet work‑hour thresholds or who are employed; the agency’s public materials present enrollment counts, ABAWD policy usage, state waiver status, and exemption allocations, rather than a single employment metric. The official Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates dataset runs through FY2022 and was last refreshed with a report published in February 2025, so there is no FNS table labeled “work‑participation rate for 2025” ^[1]. Analysts therefore rely on FNS State Options Reports, which document how states use time‑limit waivers and discretionary exemptions, and on exemption allocation tables for FY2025 to approximate how many ABAWDs are actively exempted versus potentially subject to work rules ^{[4] [3]}.

2. What the FNS State Options reports reveal about enforcement and state behavior

FNS’s 16th and 17th edition State Options Reports show significant state variation in the application of ABAWD time‑limit waivers and discretionary exemptions, which directly shape the population subject to SNAP work requirements. In FY2024, 37 states reported using discretionary ABAWD exemptions while 16 did not, and waiver status ranged from statewide to partial to none—this heterogeneity means national enforcement intensity fluctuates mainly by state policy choices rather than by a single federal participation statistic ^{[4] [6]}. These reports document the policy levers that determine whether able‑bodied adults without dependents face the 80‑hour per month standard or are exempted, so they are the closest official FNS sources for understanding how many recipients are in scope for work‑participation monitoring.

3. The FY2025 ABAWD allocations and the practical limits of using them as employment proxies

FNS published FY2025 allocations of discretionary ABAWD exemptions, setting each state’s available exemptions at 8% of the state’s estimated covered population and requiring quarterly reporting of exemption usage; the tables list total available exemptions, newly earned exemptions, and used exemptions in FY2024 ^[3]. These allocation figures are useful for estimating how many ABAWDs states can shield from time limits, but they do not indicate whether recipients are actually employed or meeting work‑hour thresholds. Exemption utilization can reflect administrative capacity, outreach, or policy choices rather than underlying employment status, so using exemption counts to infer work participation risks conflating policy design with labor‑market outcomes.

4. CBO projections and the macro context: enrollment, benefits, and unemployment through 2035

The Congressional Budget Office’s January 2025 baseline projects average monthly SNAP participation at 42.5 million in FY2025, falling to 37.0 million by FY2035, with average monthly benefits per participant rising modestly; it also projects unemployment near 4.3–4.4% over the forecast horizon ^[5]. CBO’s projections do not provide SNAP‑recipient employment breakdowns or work‑participation rates, but the combination of a stable unemployment rate and declining enrollment suggests limited large shifts in the share of recipients meeting work requirements at the national level, absent major policy or economic shocks. Analysts must therefore combine CBO macro forecasts with FNS state‑level policy data to assess the likely number of recipients subject to or meeting work standards.

5. The effect of H.R. 1 guidance and the enforcement timetable through late 2025

USDA/FNS issued implementation guidance for ABAWD work‑requirement changes under H.R. 1 effective July 4, 2025 and instructed states to notify affected households; the guidance also specified that FNS will not hold states accountable for certain errors related to these new requirements until November 1, 2025 ^[2]. This enforcement grace period and the requirement that states and in some cases counties notify households affect reported compliance and administrative data in 2025, because implementation lags and notification burdens can temporarily depress the number of beneficiaries formally counted as noncompliant or work‑participating. Any snapshot of 2025 administrative outcomes must therefore be interpreted against this transition timeline.

6. Bottom line for researchers: synthesize multiple official sources, don’t expect a single percentage

To report on SNAP work participation or employment status through 2025, researchers must synthesize the FY2022 FNS participation report, FY2025 ABAWD exemption allocations, the 16th/17th State Options Reports, CBO projections, and the July–November 2025 FNS implementation guidance—there is no standalone USDA/FNS national work‑participation rate for 2025 ^{[1] [3] [4] [5] [6] [2]}. Combining these documents yields state‑level bounds on how many people are subject to work rules and how many exemptions are available, while macro projections provide context on likely employment trends; any published national “rate” for 2025 would therefore be an analyst‑constructed estimate rather than an official FNS statistic.