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Which demographic groups saw the largest suicide rate changes in the US during 2024–2025?
Executive summary
Available reporting shows mixed and provisional findings for 2024–2025: national age‑adjusted suicide rates were broadly flat from 2022–2023 (about 14.1–14.2 per 100,000) with roughly 49,000 deaths in 2023 [1], while provisional and localized 2024 data and outside analyses point to notable subgroup shifts — increases among some adult age brackets and males making up nearly 80% of deaths, and declines among many teens [2] [3] [4] [5]. Coverage is uneven for 2024–2025; many sources rely on provisional estimates or state briefs rather than finalized national vital statistics for 2024 [6] [7].
1. Big picture: national rate largely unchanged recently, but counts remain high
Multiple national summaries report the U.S. age‑adjusted suicide rate was essentially unchanged from 2022 to 2023 at about 14.1–14.2 deaths per 100,000, with roughly 49,000 suicides in 2023 [1]. Experts and advocates nonetheless highlight that the absolute number of deaths remains large and that trends differ sharply across demographic groups — so a flat overall rate masks unequal impacts [1] [2].
2. Who saw the largest increases: men and some older age groups
Men continue to account for the vast majority of suicide deaths; males comprised almost 80% of suicides in 2024 in Minnesota data and male national rates remain several times higher than female rates, for example a male rate of about 21.6 vs female 6.4 per 100,000 in Minnesota’s 2024 brief [3]. National reporting also notes that rates are highest among older adults — in 2023, adults 75+ and males had among the highest age‑adjusted rates [1]. Certain analyses flag increased rates for females in middle age in earlier years and for some older female groups between 2022 and 2023 [8] [5].
3. Young adults and teens: a mixed picture with some sharp changes
Analyses indicate young adults (roughly 18–27) experienced a sizable increase over the 2014–2024 decade — nearly 20% in the young‑adult suicide rate from 13.8 to 16.4 per 100,000 — suggesting young adults were among groups with notable rate rises through 2024 [4]. At the same time, federal survey data show declines in suicidal thoughts among 12–17 year‑olds (from ~13% in 2021 to 10% in 2024), and some state 2024 briefs report lower teen rates compared with 2023 [9] [7]. Therefore, teens as a whole may be improving while young adults’ suicide deaths rose more substantially [4] [9].
4. Race, ethnicity and rurality: concentrated burdens but incomplete 2024 national breakdowns
Reports highlight persistently high age‑adjusted rates among American Indian/Alaska Native (AI/AN) people and geographic disparities [1]. Minnesota’s 2024 brief also shows different methods and rates across racial groups and higher rates in rural counties versus metro areas [7] [3]. However, finalized, nationwide 2024–2025 breakdowns by race/ethnicity remain limited in the available reporting and many national briefs rely on provisional or earlier years’ data [6] [7].
5. Methods and measurement: why subgroup changes matter even when the national rate is flat
Because the aggregate age‑adjusted rate can mask divergent trends, several sources emphasize subgroup analyses: small but meaningful percentage changes in smaller demographic groups (for example some older age bands or racial groups) can reflect substantial local impacts and different intervention needs [7] [1]. State‑level 2024 briefs are frequently provisional and highlight that rates in small subgroups can fluctuate year‑to‑year due to small counts [7].
6. Limitations, data gaps and competing interpretations
Several sources use provisional estimates for 2024 and 2025 and caution that final national vital statistics were not always available for the most recent year; some outlets present higher 2024 estimates (e.g., estimated age‑adjusted 14.7 per 100,000 in one analysis) while CDC‑based reports stress steadiness through 2023 [6] [1]. Where sources disagree — provisional private analyses versus CDC/NCHS reporting — the differences reflect methodology (finalized death certificate processing vs early estimates) and underscore that firm national conclusions for 2024–2025 are limited in current reporting [6] [1] [8].
7. Bottom line for readers and policymakers
Available reporting shows the clearest, largest and most consistent disparities: males and older adults have the highest rates and in some state 2024 data males comprised about 80% of suicides [3] [1]; young adults show substantial increases over the decade to 2024 in some analyses [4]; teens show promising declines in suicidal thoughts and some lower rates in 2024 [9] [7]. Final national 2024–2025 breakdowns by detailed demographic groups are not fully available in the cited sources, so targeted policy and prevention planning should rely on both finalized national data and local/state briefs [6] [7].
If you want, I can compile a short table listing which sources report increases or decreases for each demographic (age bands, sex, race/ethnicity) and note where the data are provisional versus final.