How did the 1969 draft lottery work and which other future political figures were affected by it?
Executive summary
The 1969 draft lottery assigned every birth date a number from 1 to 366 by drawing blue plastic capsules containing calendar dates; lower numbers meant earlier “order of call” for men born 1944–1950 and therefore a higher chance of induction in 1970 [1] [2]. The process was highly visible—drawn publicly, the first capsule was September 14—and immediately sparked controversy over randomness and fairness that reverberated into politics and later legal and statistical scrutiny [1] [3] [4].
1. How the lottery mechanically determined who might be drafted
On December 1, 1969, officials of the Selective Service placed 366 dated capsules in a container and drew them one at a time, assigning the first date drawn lottery number 1, the second number 2, and so on, so that all men born on the same calendar day between January 1, 1944, and December 31, 1950, shared one lottery number that set the order in which they could be called during 1970 [1] [3]. The public ceremony—Congressman Alexander Pirnie drew the first capsule, September 14, which became lottery number 1—was broadcast by radio and television to emphasize an appearance of impartiality and to replace the older “oldest-first” method that critics said was unfair [1] [3] [5]. Administrative rules limited who was actually ordered to report: the highest lottery number actually called for induction out of the 1969 drawing was 195 for the 1970 call-ups, meaning only those assigned numbers 1–195 and classified available would have been at greatest risk of induction that year [2] [6].
2. The randomness problem and political fallout
Statisticians and politicians quickly charged that the drawing was not truly random because later calendar dates clustered toward low (i.e., early-call) lottery numbers, producing a bias that disproportionately affected November–December births; these analyses prompted calls for hearings and a second review even as officials defended the result and courts upheld the process administratively [4] [7]. Critics argued the apparent nonrandomness undercut the lottery’s stated goal of equalizing burden across socioeconomic lines and instead intensified public anger and antiwar activism, cementing the lottery as a flashpoint in broader criticism of the Vietnam-era draft [4] [8].
3. Who the lottery reached — scale and notable names
Roughly hundreds of thousands of registrants were directly affected: sources cite large numbers in the draft pool and estimate hundreds of thousands saw their lives altered by the lottery and subsequent call-ups [6] [2]. Public lists and retrospective charts match birth dates to lottery numbers and show that some men who later became well-known politicians fell into specific slots—for example, George W. Bush, born July 6, 1946, was assigned lottery number 327 in the December 1969 draw, a relatively high number that made immediate induction unlikely in 1970 [9]. Contemporary and later accounts caution that some prominent names appearing on charts had already resolved draft status by other means (service, deferment, or classification) and thus “being on the chart” did not uniformly translate to being called up [9].
4. Legal, administrative and historical consequences
The controversy did not change the 1969 results, but it pushed Selective Service to re-examine procedures and influenced subsequent lotteries, which sources say were better randomized in later years even as the draft wound down and induction authority expired in 1973 [6] [2]. The lottery remains a focal example in debates about procedural fairness in conscription: it solved some inequities of the prior local-board system but introduced a new, highly visible grievance when the mechanics failed statistical muster [10] [4]. Contemporary compendia and primary charts preserve the exact pairings of birth dates and lottery numbers, letting researchers and citizens check where particular individuals would have fallen—useful for historical reckoning but limited in explaining each man’s ultimate draft fate, which depended on classifications and the numbers actually called [2] [9].