How was the 1969 Vietnam draft lottery conducted and how were birthdates assigned risk numbers?
Executive summary
The 1969 Vietnam draft lottery assigned every calendar birthdate (366 days) a lottery number from 1–366 by drawing blue plastic capsules from a large glass container on December 1, 1969; lower numbers meant earlier “order of call” for men born 1944–1950 (highest number called was 195) [1] [2] [3]. Contemporary and later analyses concluded the drawing used physical capsules and was not perfectly randomized—statisticians found later dates tended to receive lower (safer) numbers, a result critics blamed on inadequate mixing [3] [4].
1. How the lottery was run — a live, capsule-by-capsule drawing
The Selective Service held a live drawing at its Washington headquarters on December 1, 1969: 366 blue plastic capsules, each containing a card for a day of the year, were placed in a large glass container and drawn one at a time; the sequence drawn determined the lottery numbers assigned to those birthdates (first capsule drawn = lottery number 1, etc.) [2] [3] [1]. The event was publicized and broadcast, intended to replace the prior “oldest-first” method and to create a visibly random order of call for men born between January 1, 1944, and December 31, 1950 [2] [5].
2. How birthdates became “risk numbers” — mapping dates to call order
Each calendar date (including Feb. 29) received a unique number from 1 to 366 according to its draw position; a man’s draft vulnerability for 1970 was then determined solely by the lottery number tied to his birthday: lower numbers were called first for induction, and registration/availability determined whether a man would actually be ordered to report [6] [2] [7]. Administratively, tables showing months down the side and days across the top displayed the assigned numbers so registrants could look up their number [2].
3. Legal and administrative scope — who was affected and what happened next
The 1969 lottery set the “order of call” for calendar year 1970 and affected men born 1944–1950; the highest lottery number actually called for induction in that cycle was 195 [2] [8]. Subsequent lotteries in 1970–72 covered other birth years; the draft wound down after 1972 with the last calls in December 1972 and induction authority expiring in June 1973 [2].
4. Why critics questioned the randomness — statistical red flags
Although the drawing used physical capsules, statisticians and commentators later argued the process produced non‑random outcomes: analyses suggested later calendar dates (autumn/winter) disproportionately received lower numbers, implying inadequate mixing of capsules and a flawed randomization procedure [3] [4]. Contemporary challenges even sought injunctions to halt inductions until a truly randomized method was used, but courts declined because the live drawing was already complete [4].
5. Competing perspectives — fairness, optics, and political aims
Supporters argued the lottery improved perceived fairness by replacing an age-priority system that disadvantaged the poor and less-educated; Nixon and Congress framed it as a reform to reduce campus unrest and introduce randomness into selection [5] [9]. Critics countered that the live spectacle and physical method produced a misleading impression of randomness and that the lottery did not eliminate inequities—deferments and socio-economic factors continued to shape who actually served [5] [8].
6. Practical consequences for registrants — what the numbers meant on the ground
A low lottery number meant you were in a higher calling pool and might be ordered for physicals and induction; a high number often spared immediate service. Still, having a low number did not guarantee deployment, nor did a high number guarantee safety over the entire period—the government set administrative processing thresholds (APNs) that determined how many lottery numbers would actually be called in a given table year [2] [8].
7. Limitations of available reporting and what’s not stated
Available sources describe the capsule method, draw date, affected birth years, and statistical critiques, but do not provide a complete minute‑by‑minute operational protocol (e.g., exact mixing procedure, chain of custody details) nor do they give a full court record of every legal challenge; for those specifics, available sources do not mention internal Selective Service procedural memos or complete forensic mixing analyses [3] [4] [2].
In summary: the 1969 draft lottery assigned risk numbers by physically drawing 366 birthdate capsules in public, creating a ranked list that governed the 1970 order of call, but later analysis and contemporaneous critics concluded the drawing was imperfectly randomized and left unresolved questions about whether the procedure truly delivered equal odds to all birthdays [1] [3] [4].