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How did immigration, birth rates, and emigration each contribute to Palestine's population change between 1920 and 1945?
Executive summary
Between 1922 and 1945 Mandatory Palestine’s population rose from roughly 757,000 (1922 census) to about 1.8 million by 1945, driven overwhelmingly by natural increase (high birth rates and falling mortality) combined with substantial Jewish immigration and smaller net Arab migration; official records list about 367,845 legal Jewish immigrants (plus an estimated 50–60,000 illegal) and Roberto Bachi estimated net Arab migration of about 40–42,000 for 1922–1945 [1] [2] [3] [4]. British-era inquiries and the 1945 Survey of Palestine concluded that most of the Arab population rise was from natural growth rather than migration [3] [5].
1. Population change in raw numbers — what the records show
The British 1922 census recorded about 757,182 people in Palestine; by 1945 contemporary summaries put the total near 1.8 million, with the Arab population roughly doubling and the Jewish population increasing far more rapidly (10-fold since 1922 by some accounts) [1] [4]. Official immigration tallies for 1920–1945 list 367,845 Jews and 33,304 non‑Jews arriving legally, with estimates of an additional 50–60,000 Jews arriving illegally — figures that explain a large share of the Jewish increase [2]. Roberto Bachi’s post‑war tabulations attribute a net Arab migration into Palestine of about 40,000–42,000 between 1922 and 1945 [3] [6].
2. The dominant driver for Arab population growth: natural increase
Multiple British reports and the 1945 Survey of Palestine concluded the Arab population rise was driven primarily by natural increase — high fertility and falling mortality — rather than large-scale inward migration, with some sources calculating that natural growth accounted for the overwhelming majority (a cited table notes 96% in one presentation) [3] [5]. Contemporary censuses and village statistics used by the Survey support the view that birth rates and reduced mortality produced rapid Arab demographic expansion before 1948 [7] [8].
3. Jewish immigration: numerical impact and contested framing
Jewish immigration was numerically decisive for the Yishuv’s growth: official records show roughly 368,000 legal Jewish arrivals 1920–1945 and historians estimate another 50–60,000 illegal entrants in that period, a scale sufficient to increase the Jewish share from single digits to nearly a third of the population by the mid‑1940s [2] [4]. Sources differ on interpretation: some emphasize immigration as the primary engine of demographic change, while British surveys and Arab commentators stress that overall Palestinian population growth was mainly natural increase [4] [3]. Both views are reflected in the archival numbers.
4. Arab migration (inward/outward): smaller but non‑negligible flows
Roberto Bachi’s estimate of net Arab migration into Palestine (about 40,000–42,000 for 1922–1945) shows that migration did contribute to Arab population change, but at a scale far smaller than natural increase; this figure excludes around 9,700 people added by territorial border adjustments in the 1920s [3]. Other sources note seasonal and marginal Arab immigration as well as emigration of Palestinians to the Americas and elsewhere, complicating simple inward/outward tallies [9] [5].
5. Emigration from Palestine: not the main story but present in the record
Emigration occurred — the period saw some Palestinians leaving for Latin and South America and elsewhere, and seasonal and temporary migration both ways — but available reporting emphasizes that emigration did not reverse the overall upward trend; instead, high natural increase more than offset departures [5] [8]. Specific comprehensive emigration totals for 1920–1945 are not provided in the selected sources; available sources do not mention precise consolidated emigration figures for that full period beyond anecdotal and regional accounts [5].
6. How historians and reports disagree — where interpretation matters
British official inquiries (Hope Simpson, Passfield, Peel Commission, Survey of Palestine) largely attributed Arab population growth to natural increase, a conclusion reinforced by later analysts and by the 1945 Survey’s village statistics [3] [7]. In contrast, some modern discussions and advocacy sites emphasize immigration (especially Jewish immigration) as the central demographic engine — supported by the clear immigration tallies [2]. The tension is interpretive: numbers for births, deaths, and migration exist, but emphasis shifts depending on political and historiographical aims [3] [2].
7. Bottom line and limits of the record
Quantitatively: total population rose from ~757,000 in 1922 to ~1.8 million in 1945; roughly 368,000 legal Jewish immigrants (plus an estimated 50–60,000 illegal) arrived 1920–1945; net Arab migration was modest (~40–42,000) while natural increase accounted for most Arab population growth according to British reports and the 1945 Survey [1] [2] [3] [5]. Limitations: some emigration figures and year‑by‑year birth/death tallies are not consolidated in the cited materials, and interpretations differ by source and political perspective [5] [3].