Which U.S. metropolitan areas have median rents that exceed the income needed to meet the 2025 FPL?
Executive summary
Median rents in many U.S. metropolitan areas now sit well above typical low-income thresholds, and multiple industry trackers report median monthly rents in large metros commonly between roughly $1,400 and $2,600 in 2025 [1]. Federal HUD Fair Market Rent methodology and multiple market reports show wide metro variation—some high-cost metros (San Jose, New York, Providence) remain well above those medians while others have cooled (San Francisco, Austin) — but available sources do not list a definitive set of metros where median rent explicitly exceeds the 2025 Federal Poverty Level (FPL) income threshold [2] [3] [4] [5] [1].
1. What the question asks and why sources don’t give a single yes/no list
The query compares two different yardsticks: median metro rent and the 2025 Federal Poverty Level income required to “meet” FPL. The public reporting in our sources gives metro median rents and HUD’s FMR methodology, but none of the supplied reports compute which specific metros’ medians exceed the dollar-equivalent of the 2025 FPL for a household size (available sources do not mention a compiled list comparing metro median rent to 2025 FPL) [2] [1] [3].
2. Benchmarks you need to make the comparison
To answer precisely you need three data points: (a) the 2025 FPL income level by household size, (b) the monthly rent burden threshold implied by that income (for example total rent affordable at 30% of income), and (c) the metropolitan median rent. Our search set contains metro median rent ranges (most metros $1,400–$2,600 in 2025) and HUD’s Fair Market Rent methodology, but it does not include the 2025 FPL table or a crosswalk that converts FPL to a rent affordability threshold in each metro [1] [2]. Therefore any exact metro list cannot be derived from the available reporting.
3. What the rent data says: broad patterns and example metros
National and private trackers establish clear patterns: many metros saw substantial increases through 2022–24 and remain elevated compared with a decade earlier, with typical metro medians in 2025 clustered between about $1,400 and $2,600 per month [1]. Some high-cost metros remain at the top (San Jose, New York, Providence) while others show marked declines—San Francisco’s rents dropped >20% since 2022 in one report and Austin’s metro is down over 20% from its 2022 peak in another [3] [5] [4]. These contrasts matter because whether a median rent exceeds an FPL-derived affordability threshold will depend on that metro’s specific median and the household size used for the FPL comparison [1] [3] [5].
4. How HUD data factors in and its limitations
HUD’s Fair Market Rents (FMRs) are calculated for metropolitan areas and are explicitly used for housing programs; HUD documents the FMR methodology and metro definitions [2]. But FMRs are not identical to median market rents reported by Rent, Apartment List, or other private trackers, and HUD materials here describe methodology rather than presenting a direct mapping to FPL affordability outcomes. Using HUD’s FMRs instead of private median rents could change which metros appear unaffordable relative to an FPL-based threshold [2].
5. Why household size and the “30% rule” matter
Affordability comparisons depend on household size and the affordability rule you apply. Many analyses use the 30%-of-income standard; Lawn Love’s 2025 commentary cites that rule and notes metros where renters spend far above that share [6]. A single-person FPL is much lower than a family FPL; a rent that is unaffordable for a single-person at FPL might be relatively less unaffordable for a larger household with higher FPL values. Our sources reference the 30% heuristic but do not perform a metro-by-metro FPL comparison [6].
6. Competing perspectives and policy relevance
Private market trackers emphasize shifting metro dynamics—some show cooling rents driven by new construction (Denver, Austin) while others flag persistently high medians in coastal and some midsize metros (San Jose, Providence, New York) [4] [5] [1]. HUD’s FMR framework is a programmatic benchmark, not a statement about poverty income adequacy; housing advocates use FMRs to argue for voucher increases while market analysts point to new supply moderating pressures in some metros [2] [4].
7. How you can get a definitive answer (actionable next steps)
To produce the precise metro list requested: (a) obtain the 2025 federal poverty guidelines by household size (not in supplied sources), (b) choose the affordability rule (e.g., rent ≤30% of gross income), and (c) pull each metro’s current median monthly rent from a single source (Apartment List, Rent, HUD FMRs) and run the comparison. Our dataset includes metro median ranges and HUD methodology but does not include the 2025 FPL table or a ready-made crosswalk, so we cannot compute the definitive list here (available sources do not mention the 2025 FPL table or a compiled metro-by-metro comparison) [1] [2] [7].
Limitations: This analysis relies only on the supplied reporting; different data sources (HUD FMR vs. asking-rent trackers) yield different median estimates and thus different outcomes [2] [1].