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Have trends in Canadian illegal immigration to the US changed in the last 10 years?
Executive summary
Available reporting shows that crossings from Canada into the United States rose in the early 2020s but then declined again by 2024–2025 after policy changes and enforcement efforts; U.S. northern-border apprehensions were 13,547 through March 2025, a 70% drop versus the first quarter of 2024 [1]. Multiple data series and government statements say Canada-to-U.S. crossings are far smaller than southern-border flows, though some metrics (e.g., CBP encounters and BTS port counts) show short-term upticks and later reductions [2] [1] [3].
1. Northern-border increases in recent years — real but small compared with the south
Reporting and fact-checkers note that illegal crossings via Canada increased “in recent years,” but both FactCheck.org and analysts emphasize the scale: northern-border irregular migration remains far lower than crossings from Mexico to the U.S.; seizures and encounters are overwhelmingly concentrated at the southwest border [2]. That frames any “increase” as relatively modest in the overall U.S. unauthorized-migration picture.
2. Big year-to-year swings driven by policy and enforcement
Several sources tie the pattern to policy shifts: the unauthorized immigrant population grew dramatically through 2021–2023, reaching record estimates in 2023, then slowed and likely began to decline in 2025 after U.S. policy changes and increased removals [4]. Canada’s own measures (ending flagpoling, tightened visa scrutiny and a December 2024 Border Plan) are credited by Ottawa with large percentage drops in certain southbound crossings and claim big reductions in specific groups such as holders of Canadian study permits [5] [6]. Reuters and the BBC report that northern apprehensions and inbound crossings had fallen by early 2025 versus peaks in 2024 [7] [1].
3. What the headline numbers actually represent — encounters, crossings and claims are different things
Sources use different metrics: CBP “encounters” and apprehensions along the northern border, BTS inbound-port crossing counts (vehicles, pedestrians, trucks), and Canada’s figures on asylum claims and visa refusals each measure different parts of movement and enforcement. For example, CBS/official figures cited by the BBC put northern-border apprehensions at 13,547 as of March 2025, a 70% decline from early 2024, while BTS data show broader inbound travel from Canada falling about 13.5% from 2019–2024 [1] [3]. That means trends can look different depending on whether you focus on migrant apprehensions, general travel, or visa-related metrics.
4. Canada-to-U.S. southbound migration composition shifted
Government releases say some specific subgroups declined sharply after reforms: Canada reported an 89% drop in “illegal U.S. crossings by foreign nationals in Canada” from June–December 2024 and a 91% drop in illegal U.S. crossings by holders of Canadian study permits, reflecting tighter verification and visa measures [6] [5]. Reuters and Canadian sources also report increased northbound turnbacks and removals, suggesting harder enforcement in Canada is changing flows [7] [6].
5. Contradictions, political framing and economic context
Commentary and news outlets note political uses of the data: U.S. leaders have pointed to northern-border flows as justification for tariffs or hardline policies, while analysts (e.g., Forbes, FactCheck.org) caution that Canada is not a major source of illegal immigration or fentanyl trafficking compared with the southern border [8] [2]. Some Canadian outlets stress that overall bilateral travel and commercial crossings remain large even as migrant counts decline—trade and routine travel data show millions of legal crossings each year [9] [10].
6. Data limitations and what’s not known from current reporting
Public sources show trends up to early–mid 2025 but caution about incomplete data and changing definitions: Pew notes that estimates through 2024–2025 are provisional and affected by policy shifts [4]. Available sources do not mention reliable, long-term counts specifically isolating “Canadians” or permanent residents unlawfully entering the U.S. over the past decade, and they do not provide a single harmonized time series that isolates illegal southbound crossings from Canada across 2015–2025 [4] [3].
7. Bottom line for the last 10 years
Across the last decade the pattern is not a steady rise: there were increases in irregular north-south movement in the early 2020s, a record rise in the unauthorized population nationally through 2023, then notable declines and policy-driven shifts by 2024–2025—especially after both U.S. and Canadian enforcement and visa-screening changes [4] [1] [6]. However, northern-border flows have remained much smaller than southern-border flows throughout this period [2].
If you want a short data follow-up, I can extract specific CBP northern-border monthly apprehension totals, BTS port-by-port inbound counts, or Canada’s asylum-claim time series from the cited sources to plot year-by-year changes.