Fact check: What is the current estimated number of illegal immigrants in the US as of 2025?

1. Why 14 million is the widely cited baseline — and why it matters

Pew Research Center’s analysis concluded that the unauthorized immigrant population reached a record 14 million in 2023, based on the Census Bureau’s surveys and Department of Homeland Security data; Pew treats this as a methodological baseline because it draws on multiple established data streams and transparent adjustments ^{[3] [4]}. This 14 million estimate matters because it reflects the most robust, reproducible approach available for national-level accounting, and it underpins policymaking, media coverage, and academic debate. Pew also notes that its public reports rely on data that trail real-time events; therefore, the 14 million figure is both the current substantial benchmark and a reminder that short-term changes are hard to measure precisely without updated, comprehensive survey data ^{[1] [5]}.

2. Why some analysts report higher 2025 counts — the 15.4 million claim

A separate analysis from the Center for Immigration Studies produced a 15.4 million estimate for January 2025, using the Current Population Survey as its primary input and interpreting recent increases in the foreign-born share as evidence of substantial growth over four years ^[2]. That methodology yields a larger number because it emphasizes recent survey snapshots and different adjustment factors for undercount and legal status. The divergence illustrates how methodological choices — survey selection, treatment of arrivals and departures, and correction factors for undercount — drive sizable differences in short-term estimates. This higher figure aligns with observable increases in foreign-born population measures but rests on assumptions that independent researchers consider more speculative without corroborating administrative data ^[2].

3. Signals of a 2024 rise and a tentative 2025 slowdown — mixed trends

Multiple summaries note a pattern of continued growth into 2024, albeit at a slower rate than the jump up to 2023, with some indicators pointing to a possible decline in 2025 while remaining close to the record level ^{[1] [3]}. Pew explicitly reports that while growth likely continued in 2024, comprehensive national data for 2024 and 2025 are incomplete, which means claims of substantial 2025 declines or large outflows cannot be verified yet. The mixed-signal picture — growth, plateau, or modest fall — reflects differences between survey cycles, administrative border encounter statistics, and lagging demographic adjustments. In short, trends through 2025 are provisional and sensitive to which datasets and corrections researchers prioritize ^[1].

4. Political claims versus methodological caution — conflicting narratives

Political actors have presented conflicting accounts of the 2025 unauthorized population: for example, a senior administration official claimed a 1.6 million decline tied to enforcement actions, a claim that researchers and data trackers cautioned is premature given the absence of complete, nationally representative data for 2025 ^[6]. This clash underscores the gap between political narratives that favor immediate, headline-making figures and scholarly sources that emphasize data lags and uncertainty. Pew and other method-focused analysts advise caution in taking short-term, administration-supplied numbers at face value until they can be reconciled with survey and administrative records; the resulting dynamic produces public confusion and disparate headline numbers in the media ^{[6] [4]}.

5. Bottom line for users: best current estimate and what to watch next

For most evidence-based purposes, treat ~14 million ^[7] as the core, defensible estimate, with credible alternative estimates ranging up to roughly 15.4 million for early 2025 depending on method; however, no single figure for 2025 is universally accepted because national survey and administrative integration lags persist ^{[1] [2]}. Track upcoming releases from Pew, the Census Bureau’s household surveys, and Department of Homeland Security administrative tallies for clearer reconciliation; watch for methodological notes about undercount adjustments and treatment of recent arrivals and departures. Policymakers and commentators should report both the baseline and the methodological reasons for divergence to keep public debate grounded in transparent, dated evidence rather than single-number claims ^{[5] [1]}.