Which US states saw the largest increases in undocumented immigrant populations between 2020 and 2025?
Executive summary
The best available reporting and state-level estimates point to Texas and Florida as the states that experienced the largest increases in unauthorized (undocumented) immigrant populations in the recent surge years, with Florida showing especially rapid growth through 2023 and Texas remaining the single largest state by count into 2024 [1] [2] [3]. Caveats matter: public estimates diverge by methodology and time window, and comprehensive, final 2024–2025 state totals are not yet available in the sources provided [4] [5].
1. The headline winners: Texas and Florida — numbers and context
Multiple contemporary summaries identify Texas and Florida as the primary gainers: a data compilation cited by a statistical blog reported Texas at roughly 2.1 million and Florida about 1.6 million unauthorized residents and identified those two states as having the biggest increases through 2019–2024 [1], while state-focused analysis from the Public Policy Institute of California likewise highlights Florida’s jump from about 0.9 million in 2021 to 1.6 million in 2023, calling Florida the fastest-growing state in recent years [2]. Pew and Axios reporting place California, Texas and Florida among the six states holding the bulk of the nation’s unauthorized population, and note growth across dozens of states between 2021 and 2023 — reinforcing that Florida’s rapid rise and Texas’s large-scale increases are the dominant patterns visible in the data window available [3].
2. Why counts differ: methods, parole programs and Title 42 distortions
These state-level changes must be interpreted through the lens of differing estimation methods and shifting federal policy: analysts warn that encounter totals at the border can be inflated by repeat crossings under Title 42 (March 2020–May 2023) and that administrative programs like CHNV parole added large, temporary cohorts that complicate comparisons across years [1] [4]. Pew’s analysts emphasize that incomplete administrative and survey data for 2024–2025 make precise state-level change estimates provisional, and note that growth slowed in late 2024 after policy shifts — meaning state changes through mid-2025 remain partially unresolved [5] [4].
3. Alternative signals: modest state shifts and contradictory short windows
Not every source points to the same winners for every subperiod: a Newsweek map based on DHS data showed Texas adding roughly 110,000 unauthorized residents while Florida and New York reportedly fell between 2020 and 2022, and California’s total was relatively stable over that specific short interval — underscoring that the exact timing chosen (2020–2022 vs. 2019–2024 vs. 2020–2025) alters which states appear to have the “largest increases” [6]. This methodological heterogeneity explains why some accounts single out Texas and Florida as the big gainers while others show smaller or even negative changes for particular states in narrow time slices [6] [3].
4. Broader geography: diffusion beyond traditional gateways
Several analysts stress that the unauthorized population is less geographically concentrated than in past decades: Pew and Migration Policy Institute reporting document growth across more states (32 states grew from 2021 to 2023), meaning that while Texas and Florida lead in absolute increases, notable upticks occurred in nontraditional destinations as labor demand and migration routes shifted [3] [7]. This diffusion matters because political and economic impacts are distributed and because state-level migration dynamics respond to labor-market pull, enforcement policies, and temporary federal programs [3] [7].
5. Bottom line and reporting limits
With the sources at hand, the clearest pattern is that Florida experienced the fastest and largest proportional rise through 2021–2023 and into 2024, and Texas shows the largest absolute undocumented population and substantial increases over the same multi-year span; however, exact 2020–2025 state-by-state deltas remain provisional because different data sets, methodological choices, and federal policy changes (paroles, Title 42 and mid‑2024 restrictions) alter trends and make comprehensive 2024–2025 reconciliation incomplete in the provided reporting [2] [1] [4]. Where finer precision is required, researchers rely on MPI, Pew and the Center for Migration Studies state tools and on DHS/OHSS historical series — and those sources should be consulted for updated state profiles as final 2024–2025 estimates are released [7] [8] [4].