How have parole programs and border encounter accounting altered 2023–2024 population estimates?
Executive summary
Parole programs and the way border encounters were counted between 2023 and 2024 materially raised official and academic estimates of the U.S. unauthorized-immigrant population by adding large numbers of people who were encountered at the border and released or admitted on parole into the demographic tallies, driving Pew’s mid‑2023 to 2024 surge estimates and prompting the Census Bureau to revise methods for net international migration [1] [2] [3]. Those accounting changes also introduced new measurement challenges—coverage errors, “got‑aways,” and shifting program rules—so the apparent peak in 2024 and subsequent slowdown reflect both real flows and policy-driven changes in who is captured by administrative data [1] [4] [5].
1. Parole programs converted encounters into counted population increases
Large parole initiatives—CHNV (Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, Venezuela), Uniting for Ukraine (U4U), OFO paroles at ports of entry, CBP One appointments and other humanitarian paroles—admitted hundreds of thousands of people who, once released or paroled, were treated as part of the unauthorized or liminal immigrant population in demographic estimates; Pew and other analysts count roughly 500,000+ CHNV/U4U/OFO parolees through 2023 and into 2024 and note OFO parole counts rising from ~340,000 in mid‑2023 to nearly 980,000 by end‑2024 in some tallies [1] [2] [6] [7].
2. Border‑encounter accounting reclassified “contacts” into population stock numbers
Customs and Border Protection releases and Border Patrol “releases” were incorporated by the Census Bureau and researchers into population estimates—Pew cites roughly 1.6–2.0 million Border Patrol releases and other parole/releases contributing to the 14 million unauthorized estimate in 2023–2024—so administrative encounter counts were effectively converted into additions to the resident population in official accounting [2] [8] [6].
3. Methodological fixes and coverage adjustments amplified the measured jump
Researchers and agencies revised survey adjustments because the American Community Survey undercounted recent arrivals; academics (MPI, FWD) and the Census acknowledged coverage error and used DHS/CBP administrative flows to project forward from the 2023 ACS, meaning methodological corrections—on top of parole counts—made the 2023–24 population rise larger than prior trend estimates suggested [9] [10] [3].
4. “Got‑aways,” entries without inspection, and uncertainty left big measurement holes
Even as large parole and release tallies were added to estimates, analysts warn that got‑aways (people not encountered by CBP) and entries without inspection are hard to measure and required assumptions; CBO and Brookings adjusted for these invisible flows differently, and the Chief of Border Patrol has testified that official encounter tallies undercount undetected crossings by 10–20%, so net population effects depend heavily on how modelers estimate those unseen entrants or exits [5] [11].
5. Policy shifts explain rapid growth, a sharp slowdown, and contested narratives
The surge in measured population through 2023 and early 2024 reflected both higher flows and active parole policies; when the administration paused parole programs and limited asylum filings in mid‑ to late‑2024, measured inflows slowed and by 2025 some indicators show declines—Pew, CBO, Dallas Fed and Brookings all document a peak in early 2024 followed by sharp drops tied to policy changes and enforcement shifts [1] [5] [4] [11]. Political actors contest the implications: House Homeland Security materials frame parole as mass releases and an administrative failure, emphasizing different counts and policy critiques [12] [13] [7], while neutral researchers focus on reconciling survey coverage and administrative data.
6. What remains unresolved and how that shapes the bottom line
Estimates for 2023–24 rose substantially because parole programs and encounter accounting turned administrative contacts into population additions and because statisticians corrected for undercounts among recent arrivals, but significant uncertainty persists about got‑aways, program rollbacks, the timing of asylum procedure changes and eventual deportations—issues the sources acknowledge—so while the data support a sizable jump through 2024 and a subsequent slowdown or partial reversal, final tallies will depend on how future revisions and removals are recorded [1] [6] [4].