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What regions and countries of origin account for the largest shares of undocumented immigrants in the U.S. as of 2025?
Executive Summary
As of the most recent authoritative estimates through mid-2022 and reporting into 2025, Mexico remains the largest single country of origin for undocumented immigrants in the United States, but its share has declined while flows from other Latin American countries and parts of Asia—notably India and several South American nations—have grown. Published analyses point to roughly 11–11.3 million unauthorized immigrants in the U.S. around 2022 with shifting composition through 2023–25 driven by rising arrivals at the southern border and broader global migration dynamics [1] [2].
1. Why Mexico still dominates but its share is shrinking
Multiple recent estimates identify Mexico as the top country of origin for unauthorized immigrants, with Mexico accounting for roughly a quarter to nearly half of the unauthorized population depending on the analytic cut and year cited. The Migration Policy Institute’s mid‑2022 estimate places Mexico as the single largest origin and indicates Mexico’s share fell substantially since 2007, reflecting a long‑term decline in net undocumented migration from Mexico even as Mexico still supplies millions of migrants [1]. Other data summaries reiterate Mexico’s central role—one report cites roughly 11 million Mexican-born immigrants in the U.S. overall, underscoring proximity and historical ties as enduring drivers [3]. The combined evidence shows Mexico remains largest by country but no longer as dominant as in the early 2000s [2] [1].
2. Growth in Central and South American contributions reshapes the picture
Researchers document notable growth in unauthorized populations from Central and South America, particularly Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Venezuela, and Colombia, which together have driven up the Latin American share of unauthorized migrants. MPI’s analysis for 2022 reports Latin Americans and Caribbeans made up about 80 percent of the unauthorized population, with South American origin countries increasing their representation even as Mexico’s share fell [1]. Separate summaries emphasize that among Central Americans in the U.S., most were born in Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, or Honduras, highlighting the continuing importance of those countries in regional migration flows [2]. These shifts reflect changing push factors—economic distress, political instability, and climate stress—pushing diversifying flows toward U.S. entry points [1].
3. Asia’s rising role: India and broader diversification
Analysts note a growing Asian component among new arrivals, particularly from India, where increases in unauthorized crossings and visa‑backlog‑related overstays have been documented in recent years. One synthesis describes an “unprecedented number” of undocumented Indian immigrants arriving on foot at the southern border in recent years and flags India as an increasingly significant origin among non‑Latin flows [2]. MPI’s mid‑2022 breakouts also show about 10 percent of the unauthorized population originating in Asia, with countries such as India, the Philippines, and China represented among top non‑Latin origin states [1]. These trends reflect diversification of origin countries beyond historical patterns centered on Mexico and contiguous Central America [2] [1].
4. Counts, methods, and why 2022 estimates may understate 2025 realities
Most cited totals—around 11.0–11.3 million unauthorized immigrants—are anchored to mid‑2022 population estimates and retrospective Census‑based assignments of legal status; they are the best rigorous baselines available but may not fully capture 2022–2024 border surges and policy shifts [1] [4]. Analysts warn that record border encounters in 2022 and 2023 likely altered composition and added newer arrivals who are not fully reflected in 2022 snapshots; official DHS and MPI-type tabulations can lag these rapid changes [2] [5]. Therefore 2025 composition is plausibly more weighted toward recent arrival nationalities—Venezuela, Colombia, Cuba, and India are repeatedly cited among top recent arrival countries—than mid‑2022 aggregated estimates indicate [6] [1].
5. State concentrations and the policy lens: California, Texas, Florida
State‑level reporting through 2025 shows California remains the largest single‑state home for undocumented immigrants, with roughly 2.3 million estimated in the state and significant shares also residing in Texas and Florida. California’s concentration means national patterns—especially from Mexico and Central America—are reflected strongly in that state’s unauthorized population, while emerging flows from South America and Asia also manifest through arrivals to nontraditional destination states [7] [6]. Policy debates often emphasize border enforcement and interior state impacts; readers should note that different sources may emphasize enforcement, humanitarian, or economic frames, which can shape presentation though not the underlying demographic shifts [7] [1].
6. Bottom line and evidence gaps to watch
The bottom line is clear: Mexico remains the largest country of origin, but the unauthorized immigrant population has diversified with growing shares from Central and South America and an increasing Asian presence—particularly India—since 2010 and accelerating through 2022–25. Major caveats are that most rigorous population estimates currently used by researchers are anchored to mid‑2022 data and that high encounter volumes in 2022–23 mean 2025 compositions may differ; analysts advise combining DHS encounter trends with MPI‑style population modeling for the most up‑to‑date picture [1] [2] [5].