What is the estimated number of undocumented immigrants in the US as of 2025?

Executive Summary — Short Answer with Context

As of the most recent analyses compiled here, the best-supported estimate places the unauthorized immigrant population in the United States at roughly 14 million in 2023, with multiple analyses indicating a likely peak in 2024 and a possible decline by mid-2025; estimates for January 2025 vary, with one preliminary survey-based figure as high as 15.4 million but other analysts suggesting declines of up to 1 million from 2024 to mid-2025. These divergent numbers reflect differences in data sources, timing, and methodology, and they show substantial uncertainty about the exact 2025 count even as consensus points to a marked increase since 2021 ^{[1] [2] [3]}.

1. What the Main Claims Say — A Clear Record of Growth and Conflicting 2025 Signals

The central, recurring claim across the material is that the unauthorized immigrant population rose sharply between 2021 and 2023, reaching a record 14 million in 2023, driven partly by parolees, asylum claimants, and other groups with temporary protections; Pew’s detailed analyses underline this jump and explain its basis in revised Census Bureau inputs and survey adjustments ^{[4] [2]}. Analysts and reports then diverge when moving into 2024–2025: several pieces argue the population likely continued increasing into 2024 and peaked in 2024 before falling by mid-2025, perhaps by as much as 1 million, while other preliminary survey snapshots — notably a January 2025 Current Population Survey reading — suggest a higher estimate near 15.4 million, illustrating conflicting signals across datasets ^{[1] [3]}.

2. Why Different Numbers Appear — Methodology, Timing and Definitions Drive Variation

The sources make clear that divergent totals stem from different methodologies, data lags, and what is counted as “unauthorized.” Pew’s approach subtracts legal immigrant counts from total foreign-born population estimates and relies on the American Community Survey and other adjusted Census inputs; Pew warns against adding Border Patrol apprehensions directly to population totals because entries, exits, and status changes interact in complex ways ^[4]. By contrast, snapshot estimates derived from the Current Population Survey or early-month labor and CPS microdata can show larger swings because of sampling error, reduced response rates among immigrant populations, and timing differences; one March 2025 preliminary CPS-based calculation produced a 15.4 million estimate but lacks the full adjustments and methodological vetting Pew uses ^{[3] [5]}.

3. Reconciling the Numbers — A 2025 Range, Not a Single Figure

Given the methodological divergences, a reasonable synthesis is a range for 2025 rather than a single definitive number: the vetted, peer-reviewed-style Pew analyses support a baseline near 14 million in 2023 and suggest a probable peak in 2024 with a modest decline by mid-2025, implying a 2025 mid-year figure perhaps in the low-to-mid 13 millions to low 14 millions. The CPS-based preliminary estimate of 15.4 million in January 2025 represents an important signal that the foreign-born and unauthorized counts may have been higher earlier in 2025, but it remains preliminary and methodologically different from Pew’s approach, so it should be viewed as a higher-bound snapshot rather than a reconciled national estimate ^{[2] [3] [1]}.

4. What Uncertainty Means for Policy and Reporting — Data Lags and Political Claims

The reports underline that estimating unauthorized populations is inherently uncertain and political claims about large departures or reductions — for example, assertions that 1.6 million undocumented immigrants left in a single year — are difficult to substantiate with the public data currently available; departments sometimes cite administrative tallies whose methodologies are not fully transparent, leaving room for overstatement or misinterpretation ^[5]. Public-policy decisions and media coverage should therefore treat single-point tallies cautiously and favor range-based estimates and trend descriptions grounded in methods that adjust for survey response issues, legal-status classification, and population controls, as laid out in the Pew methodological notes ^[4].

5. Bottom Line for Readers — The Most Defensible Statement Today

The most defensible summary for a plain question about 2025 is that the unauthorized immigrant population increased sharply from 2021 to 2023 (to ~14 million), likely peaked in 2024, and by mid-2025 may have declined somewhat, though some preliminary survey snapshots show higher counts early in 2025; therefore, stateable estimates for 2025 fall in a broad range roughly between the low 13 millions and the mid‑15 millions, with the best-vetted analyses clustering nearer the 14‑million mark. Readers should rely on Pew-style reconciled estimates for baseline policy discussion, treat CPS preliminary snapshots as important but provisional signals, and remain skeptical of administrative tallies that lack transparent methods ^{[1] [2] [3]}.