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What do 2020–2025 studies show about crime rates among undocumented immigrants vs U.S. citizens?
Executive summary
Recent peer-reviewed and policy research from 2020–2025 consistently finds that immigrants — including undocumented immigrants in studies that can identify status — have lower arrest, conviction, and incarceration rates than U.S.-born citizens. Key findings include a 2020 Texas analysis showing undocumented people arrested at less than half the rate for violent/drug crimes and a quarter the rate for property crimes [1] [2], and broader work reporting immigrants 60% less likely to be incarcerated in 2020 [3] [4].
1. What the best empirical studies say: lower offending and incarceration rates
Large, frequently-cited empirical pieces conclude undocumented immigrants commit fewer crimes than U.S.-born residents. The Texas study that uses immigration-status-flagged arrest records (2012–2018) reports undocumented immigrants have “substantially lower felony arrest rates” and are over two times less likely to be arrested for violent crimes, 2.5 times for drug crimes, and over four times for property crimes relative to U.S.-born citizens [1] [5]. The National Institute of Justice summary repeats those headline ratios and frames the Texas data as the rare case where status can be observed directly [2].
2. Cross‑national and historical context: the incarceration gap widens recently
Long-run and national-level analyses complement state studies. A multi‑decade review finds immigrants have never been incarcerated at higher rates than U.S.-born people and that in recent years immigrants were about 60% less likely to be incarcerated [4] [3]. Migration Policy Institute’s explainer cites the 60% figure and contrasts it with prosecution patterns where many immigrant prosecutions are immigration‑law violations rather than violent crimes [3].
3. Why researchers still flag limitations and data gaps
Authors and reviewers emphasize limits: most datasets do not record immigration status, so Texas is an unusual “laboratory” for status-specific estimates [1]. That means national generalizations rely on indirect methods or aggregated comparisons, and estimates can vary by geography, time period, and crime category [2] [1]. Several sources explicitly note difficulty in measuring undocumented populations and urge caution about extrapolating from one state to the whole country [6] [1].
4. Alternative findings and contested results
While most U.S.-focused peer-reviewed work cited here points to lower undocumented-offending rates, some research and commentators have identified exceptions or caveats. An older longitudinal analysis found unauthorized immigration generally not associated with increases in violent crime, though one subset (unauthorized immigration from Mexico in that study) showed possible associations with higher violence in specific contexts [7]. International or politically-oriented reports (e.g., certain think tanks or foreign analyses cited in encyclopedic summaries) sometimes report higher arrest rates for non-citizens in other countries; these are not direct contradictions of the U.S.-specific peer-reviewed studies but signal heterogeneity across contexts [8].
5. How policy and enforcement shape observed patterns
Analysts warn policy choices alter the measured population of undocumented people and who appears in criminal‑justice data. Programs that prioritize removal of people with criminal records will change the share of criminal convictions observed among people apprehended by federal agencies; border‑enforcement databases report convictions discovered at interdiction, which are not the same as population-level crime rates [9] [10]. Some researchers argue aggressive deportation tactics can have unintended community effects, even suggesting “immigration effect” patterns where more immigrant concentration correlates with lower homicide rates [6].
6. Media, politics, and how the evidence is used
Journalists and policy groups diverge in emphasis. Outlets and advocacy organizations (American Immigration Council, Brennan Center, Migration Policy Institute, NPR) present converging evidence that immigration is not tied to higher crime and that the data show lower rates among immigrants [11] [12] [3] [13]. Pro‑enforcement sources often highlight criminal‑alien counts from enforcement databases (CBP criminal‑alien statistics) or single incidents to argue public‑safety risks; those enforcement tallies measure convicted or previously convicted non‑citizens encountered by border authorities and are not the same as population crime rates [9] [10].
7. Bottom line and reporting cautions for readers
The most robust U.S. evidence from 2020–2025 — especially the Texas arrest-record studies and national incarceration analyses — finds undocumented immigrants are less likely to be arrested, convicted, or incarcerated than U.S.-born citizens [1] [2] [3]. Available sources do not mention a national, status‑identified dataset beyond state studies like Texas, so extrapolation beyond those contexts carries acknowledged uncertainty [1]. Readers should treat enforcement statistics (e.g., CBP “criminal alien” counts) as reflecting enforcement encounters rather than population crime rates [9] [10].