What data sources and methodologies report 2024 city-level homicide rates in the US?
Executive summary
Multiple organizations compile 2024 city-level homicide rates using three main data inputs: local police department incident counts, the FBI’s national reporting systems (UCR/SHR and, increasingly, NIBRS via the Crime Data Explorer), and death-record sources such as CDC vital statistics; researchers and outlets combine those with population estimates to calculate per‑100,000 rates (examples: Council on Criminal Justice using city police portals [1], RIT/CPSI using FBI Crime Data Explorer and Census-based population estimates [2], and analyst sites that mix FBI and municipal feeds [3]). No single “official”, fully complete national city‑by‑city dataset exists for 2024; reports therefore diverge depending on source coverage, reporting lags and whether analysts use county or city boundaries [1] [4].
1. Who collects raw homicide counts — and how journalists and researchers use them
Local police departments publish incident-level homicide counts on departmental portals or monthly pages; the Council on Criminal Justice’s year‑end 2024 study explicitly assembled homicide incident data from city police online portals and converted counts into monthly per‑100,000 rates for 29 cities [1]. Independent working papers, like those from RIT’s CPSI, also start with agency-reported counts gathered via the FBI’s Crime Data Explorer when agencies have submitted data [2]. Third‑party sites frequently blend municipal feeds with FBI tallies to create comparative lists [3].
2. The FBI’s role and why its products can differ from city tallies
Researchers rely on the FBI’s Crime Data Explorer, the Summary Reporting System (SHR) and expanding NIBRS submissions for standardized counts; RIT noted using the FBI Crime Data Explorer where agencies had reported [2]. But the FBI’s systems depend on local agency reporting, and not every department submits complete or timely data; analysts therefore caution that FBI tallies can undercount or lag city portal figures [2] [1]. As a result, media and advocacy groups sometimes report different 2024 rates depending on whether they used FBI, municipal, or combined inputs [3] [5].
3. Vital records and alternative mortality sources: CDC and county proxies
Some compilers use death-certificate counts (CDC/NCHS) to identify homicides as causes of death; organizations such as USAFacts note that county or CDC data can approximate city homicide levels but can be imprecise because counties may encompass multiple jurisdictions or exclude independent cities [4]. The methodological trade‑off: death records can capture homicides that never entered police statistics, but they report with a longer lag and do not always map cleanly to municipal boundaries [4].
4. Population denominators and rate calculation pitfalls
All cited reports convert counts to per‑100,000 rates using population estimates; CPSI said past papers used U.S. Census estimates and, when unavailable, alternative demographers’ modeled estimates [2]. Different analysts choose different population vintages (mid‑year, Census estimates, modeled series), producing materially different rates for the same count data. Several sources explicitly warn that small absolute changes in counts in low‑population cities produce large percentage swings in rates [1].
5. Why 2024 city rankings diverge across outlets
Outlets that produce “top” city lists—whether Newsweek, Wirepoints or private aggregators—use different source mixes: some rely on FBI 2024 SHR/NIBRS extractions, others on municipal portals, some on compiled commercial databases like AreaVibes or NeighborhoodScout [5] [3] [6]. The Council on Criminal Justice found an average decline in its sample via municipal portals, while other lists that depend on partial FBI submissions or county proxies can show different cities at the top [1] [4]. Divergence grows where a city changed reporting practices in 2024 or only recently began submitting to the FBI, as noted for cities like Jackson [7].
6. How analysts and consumers should treat 2024 city rates
Treat single‑source city rankings with caution: the most defensible work triangulates municipal incident data, FBI submissions and population method decisions, and reports coverage limits and revisions [1] [2]. The Council on Criminal Justice and reputable working papers explicitly disclose city lists, months covered, and the conversion steps used to compute rates — follow those transparency practices when judging 2024 numbers [1] [2].
7. Practical checklist for verifying a 2024 city homicide rate
Confirm whether the count comes from the city police portal or the FBI Crime Data Explorer [1] [2]. Check which population estimate was used and for what date [2]. Look for notes about incomplete agency reporting or NIBRS transition gaps [2] [4]. Prefer sources that publish incident-level data or an appendix listing included jurisdictions [1].
Limitations: available sources do not mention a single consolidated federal “city‑level 2024 homicide” public file that covers every municipality without lag; reporting differences and boundary choices explain much of the variation across the cited reports [2] [1] [4].