Fact check: How do 2024 crime rates of illegal immigrants vary by state and region?

1. What the major claims say — concise extraction of the evidence trail

The dominant claim across the supplied analyses is that undocumented immigrants and immigrants overall have lower offending and arrest rates than U.S.-born citizens. A September 2024 National Institute of Justice study of Texas concluded undocumented residents were arrested at less than half the rate of native-born citizens for violent and drug crimes, and about a quarter the rate for property crimes ^[1]. Broader syntheses from October 2024 by the American Immigration Council and the Migration Policy Institute extend the pattern nationally and historically, citing data through 2022 and prior federal and state studies that show immigrant population growth accompanied declining crime rates ^{[2] [4]}.

2. Where the strongest evidence is concentrated — Texas and national syntheses

The clearest, most specific numerical evidence in the materials emerges from Texas-focused analyses. The NIJ study reports a violent-crime arrest rate of 96.2 per 100,000 for undocumented immigrants versus 213 per 100,000 for U.S.-born citizens in Texas data spanning 2012–2018 ^[1]. Nationally oriented summaries from October 2024 by advocacy and policy research groups — the American Immigration Council and Migration Policy Institute — compile longer-term, multi-decade trends (1980–2022) and federal analyses that corroborate lower rates among immigrants compared with U.S.-born populations ^{[2] [4]}. These sources emphasize consistent patterns across multiple datasets rather than single-year state-level snapshots.

3. Regional nuance and border-area complexity — what the local studies add

Local and border-region research tempers broad claims by highlighting spatial concentration and heterogeneity. A University of Texas at El Paso study examined crime and victimization in the U.S.–Mexico border region and stressed the complexities of comparing rates across legal-status groups, without providing a definitive 2024 state-by-state table ^[3]. The Texas Department of Public Safety’s 2023 border-crime report documents that border-related incidents are geographically concentrated — the top 20 counties accounted for over 80% of reported activity — and that arrests include people not lawfully present, but it does not translate those counts into comparative per-capita rates for undocumented immigrants statewide in 2024 ^[5]. Local concentration matters for interpreting statewide or regional summaries.

4. Methodology and time-window differences that shape findings

Discrepancies and limits in comparability arise from different time horizons, population denominators, and datasets. The NIJ Texas estimate uses 2012–2018 arrest records and population estimates to compute per-100,000 rates, while national fact sheets and explainers synthesize studies spanning decades through 2022 or earlier federal analyses ^{[1] [2] [4]}. Border studies covering 2019–2023 emphasize local patterns and victimization surveys rather than arrest-rate comparisons ^[3]. These methodological choices affect which patterns are visible: multi-year trend analyses smooth short-term fluctuations, while localized reports can reveal recent spikes in specific counties. Differences in measurement, not just ideology, drive much apparent divergence.

5. How different actors use the evidence — competing narratives and likely agendas

Advocacy groups and policy institutes use these studies to support divergent policy prescriptions. The American Immigration Council and Migration Policy Institute highlight lower crime rates among immigrants to counter narratives that immigration drives crime, emphasizing inclusive-policy benefits ^{[2] [4]}. State agencies and local law-enforcement reports stress border concentrations of incidents and operational impacts, which can be used to justify stricter border enforcement or resource redeployments ^[5]. Academic work from border-region scholars stresses complexity and the limits of aggregate comparisons ^[3]. Each actor selects data and framings that align with institutional priorities, making it essential to read numerical claims alongside methodology and scope.

6. The bottom line and the gaps — what remains unknown for 2024, and why caution is needed

Across the supplied material, the consistent bottom line is that existing studies through 2022–2024 show lower arrest and incarceration rates for immigrants, including undocumented immigrants, relative to U.S.-born residents, with detailed numeric estimates available primarily for Texas and multi-decade national syntheses ^{[1] [2] [4]}. Crucially, none of the materials provide a comprehensive, validated state-by-state set of 2024 crime rates specifically for undocumented immigrants; local reports and border studies document concentration and complexity but stop short of that national breakdown ^{[3] [5]}. Filling that gap would require harmonized, up-to-date arrest and population-denominator data by state and legal-status estimates, standardized methodologies, and transparent reporting of time windows and local variations. Until such harmonized data exist, claims about 2024 state-by-state variation should be treated as underdetermined by the available evidence ^{[1] [3] [5]}.