How do the 2025 murder rates in Baltimore and Chicago compare to the national average?
Executive summary
Available reporting shows Baltimore’s 2025 homicide rate remains far above national averages in most datasets cited, with city-level mid‑year rates reported between roughly 11.8 per 100,000 for a six‑month interval (Council on Criminal Justice) and much higher full‑year style figures of 51–58 per 100,000 in several compilations (The Global Statistics; other city lists) — while national murder-rate estimates cited in these sources cluster around roughly 4.8–5.9 per 100,000 for recent years (The Global Statistics; The Global Statistics 2025 timeline) [1] [2] [3] [4]. Chicago’s 2025 homicide figures in these sources are reported well above the national average but substantially lower than Baltimore’s — commonly in the mid‑20s to high‑20s per 100,000 for mid‑year counts [2] [5] [6].
1. Baltimore: still exceptionally high by city‑level measures
Multiple mid‑2025 reports and city lists place Baltimore among the U.S. cities with the highest murder rates: The Global Statistics reports a 2025 figure near 58.1 homicides per 100,000 (early 2025 count) and other compilations list Baltimore around ~51.1 per 100,000 [2] [7]. At the same time, the Council on Criminal Justice — using six‑month intervals and a different sample — emphasizes that Baltimore’s homicide rate has fallen sharply and that the six‑month rate for the first half of 2025 was unusually low compared with recent peaks (noting a first‑half 2025 rate value shown in its dashboard and large percent declines versus 2019) [1] [8]. The takeaway: city‑level rates quoted in national lists still rank Baltimore well above national averages, even as specialist analysts note substantial recent declines [2] [1].
2. Chicago: above the national average but far below the worst city levels
Reporting compiled here shows Chicago’s homicide picture in 2025 improving versus peak pandemic years yet still above the national rate. The Global Statistics places Chicago’s mid‑year 2025 rate near 28.7 per 100,000 for the January–June window (394 homicides through June in that compilation), while local coverage and council analyses describe mid‑year homicide totals down substantially year‑over‑year and down versus pre‑pandemic in some rolling windows [2] [5] [6]. That situates Chicago clearly above national averages cited in these sources (roughly 4.8–5.9 per 100,000) but well below Baltimore and several smaller places with extreme rates [3] [4] [2].
3. What the “national average” means in these sources
The datasets cited here use different measures and time windows. Some outlets quote the national homicide or murder rate for calendar years (examples here: a 2023 national rate ~5.9 per 100,000 and a 2025 estimate reported as ~4.8 per 100,000), while city rankings often report annualized rates projected from mid‑year counts or six‑month windows [4] [3]. The Council on Criminal Justice uses six‑month intervals for city comparisons and highlights that many of the large declines are concentrated in historically high‑homicide cities, which skews comparisons if one contrasts mid‑year city rates with full‑year national averages [1] [8].
4. Numbers summarized side‑by‑side (from these sources)
- National: cited estimates cluster around roughly 4.8–5.9 murders per 100,000 in recent reporting cited here [3] [4].
- Baltimore: sources report very different figures depending on method — large public lists show ~51.1–58.1 per 100,000 (annualized city lists), while the CCJ six‑month analysis reports a substantial decline and a much lower six‑month rate relative to recent peaks [2] [7] [1].
- Chicago: mid‑year figures reported in these compilations put Chicago in the mid‑20s per 100,000 (e.g., ~28.7 per 100,000 in one mid‑year count), with local analyses emphasizing year‑over‑year declines [2] [5] [6].
5. Why the ranges differ — data, definitions, and possible agendas
Differences arise from (a) whether a source annualizes a six‑month count or reports a half‑year rate, (b) the population base used to compute per‑100,000 rates, and (c) whether the source is a broad national aggregator, a city‑focused analytic group, or a media compilation that may use different cutoffs [1] [8] [3]. Some compilations designed to rank “most dangerous” cities may emphasize high short‑term rates to produce dramatic lists (an implicit editorial agenda), while research organizations like the Council on Criminal Justice emphasize trend context and caveats about comparability [9] [1].
6. What is not resolved in these sources
Available sources do not mention a single, definitive 2025 nationwide murder rate that aligns perfectly with each city‑level method; instead, the reporting offers a range of national estimates and several different city calculations [4] [3] [1]. If you need a precise apples‑to‑apples comparison for policy or academic work, obtain the same time window and population denominators from one primary dataset (for example, FBI UCR/NIBRS releases or the Council on Criminal Justice dashboards) and apply them consistently [10] [1].
Bottom line: by the measures cited here Baltimore in 2025 remains well above national murder‑rate estimates and among the highest U.S. city rates reported, Chicago is above the national average but notably lower than Baltimore, and methodological choices explain much of the variation between sources [2] [1] [3].