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How do D.C.'s 2025 homicide trends compare to other major U.S. cities this year?
Executive summary
Washington, D.C.’s homicide count and rate fell sharply from 2023 to 2024 and continued lower into 2025 year‑to‑date: DOJ and local data show homicides dropped from 274 in 2023 to 187 in 2024, and D.C. had 99 homicides as of August 2025 versus 112 at the same point in 2024 [1] [2]. Nationally, many large U.S. cities also saw big declines in 2025 — a Washington Post analysis found homicides down nearly 20% this year across 52 major cities — while multi‑city studies put the average change across large cities in 2025 at roughly a mid‑teens decline [3] [4].
1. D.C.’s 2023–2025 swing: dramatic drop after a 2023 peak
D.C. experienced a sharp spike in 2023 (274 homicides) and then a substantial drop in 2024 (187 homicides), a 2024 violent‑crime reduction the Department of Justice described as the lowest in more than 30 years; local MPD year‑to‑date reporting shows 99 homicides through August 2025 compared with 112 through the same date in 2024, indicating 2025 has continued the downward trend [1] [2] [5].
2. How researchers compare D.C. with other large cities
Analysts use multiple windows: some studies compare half‑year or rolling 12‑month homicide rates, others compare calendar years. The Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ) found D.C.’s homicide rate for July 2024–June 2025 was about 10% higher than the comparable pre‑pandemic period (July 2018–June 2019), even while noting that the average change in 30 large study cities was a mid‑teens decline [4]. That means D.C.’s longer‑run level can still exceed older baselines even as recent counts fall [4].
3. Big‑picture national trends in 2025: most big cities down
The Washington Post’s analysis of 52 large police departments reported homicide totals were down nearly 20% in 2025, with examples such as Los Angeles trending toward its lowest totals since the pandemic era. That places D.C.’s 2025 decline in the broader context of a multi‑city drop in homicides this year [3].
4. Conflicting framings and political uses of the numbers
The numbers have been subject to political framing. The White House released language calling D.C. “out of control” and citing high per‑capita rates (for example, noting a 2024 rate of 27.3 per 100,000 and comparisons to other cities), while multiple fact‑checking outlets and local MPD data emphasize the recent year‑over‑year decline in 2024 and continued falls into 2025 [6] [1] [2]. Fact‑checkers found some national political claims relied on outdated 2023 rates rather than the lower 2024–25 figures [1] [2].
5. Why per‑capita comparisons can mislead without context
Per‑capita rates (homicides per 100,000) make cross‑city comparisons easier but can be misleading if the population base or reporting windows differ. Poynter and PolitiFact note the chart used in national political remarks displayed 2023 data, not the improved 2024–25 picture, and remind readers that including surrounding suburban populations also alters comparative rates [1] [2]. CCJ’s work shows D.C.’s rolling‑window rate can be above some pre‑pandemic baselines even as short‑term counts fall, underscoring sensitivity to the chosen timeframe [4].
6. What the multi‑city studies say about relative performance
CCJ’s sample of 30 large cities shows an average decline (roughly mid‑teens), yet only 11 of those 30 had homicide rates below 2018–19 levels in 2024–25; D.C.’s profile is mixed depending on the comparison period — better than 2023 but not uniformly below all pre‑pandemic baselines [4]. The Washington Post’s broader 52‑city analysis shows a widespread decline in 2025, situating D.C. among many cities experiencing meaningful reductions [3].
7. Limitations and unanswered questions in the available reporting
Available sources don’t present a fully harmonized ranking of every major city for all of 2025; different dashboards, windows (YTD, rolling 12 months, calendar year), and denominators complicate apples‑to‑apples ranking [4] [5]. Also, reporting notes that open‑data feeds and preliminary MPD “crime cards” can change as incidents are reclassified, so short windows are volatile [7] [8].
Conclusion — what to take away
D.C. is clearly on a downward trajectory from its 2023 peak: 274 homicides in 2023 to 187 in 2024, and year‑to‑date 2025 counts below the same period in 2024 [1] [2]. At the same time, major‑city data show a broad 2025 decline — roughly mid‑teens to nearly 20% in many analyses — so D.C.’s improvement is part of a national pattern even as questions about relative long‑run rates depend on which baseline you choose [4] [3].