Keep Factually independent
Whether you agree or disagree with our analysis, these conversations matter for democracy. We don't take money from political groups - even a $5 donation helps us keep it that way.
Fact check: How do the 2025 murder rates in US cities compare to the national average?
Executive Summary
The available 2024–2025 analyses consistently show declining homicide rates nationwide, with multiple outlets and analysts reporting drops between roughly 14% and 20% and some projecting 2025 could be the lowest U.S. murder rate on record. At the same time, large differences persist between cities, with some urban areas still carrying substantially higher homicide rates than the national average; the sources disagree on magnitude and drivers and note it is premature to declare a permanent trend [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6].
1. What the competing claims actually say — the headline assertions that matter
The analyses present three core claims: first, national homicide rates have fallen significantly since 2024, with figures cited such as a drop to about 5 homicides per 100,000 in 2024 or reductions of roughly 14–20% year-over-year [1] [2] [5]. Second, specialized reports and crime analysts argue 2025 may produce the lowest U.S. murder rate on record, with early 2025 data showing steep declines in several big cities [4]. Third, despite national improvements, some cities—including both Democratic-run and mixed-governance places—continue to register significantly higher homicide rates than the national average [1].
2. The national trend: robust declines reported in 2024–mid 2025, but dates matter
Multiple pieces emphasize a substantial nationwide decline: a 14.9% fall in murders in 2024, a 14% drop noted by NPR, and other estimates of a roughly 17–20% reduction extending into major cities through mid-2025 [5] [6] [3] [4]. These numbers are dated between May and August 2025, reflecting updated analyses and mid-year reports. Timing matters because year-to-date data and preliminary counts can shift; several sources caution that 2025 projections remain early and that historic year-to-year volatility can complicate final tallies [4].
3. City-level variation: dramatic local swings undercut simple comparisons
The sources repeatedly emphasize that national averages mask wide local variation: certain cities experienced double-digit declines—Baltimore cited a 31.6% drop, Denver a 63% drop in early counts—yet many communities continue to suffer high violence levels [4] [1] [3]. City-level rates differ not only by magnitude but by pace: some had rapid rebounds or sharper declines tied to local interventions or one-off events. This heterogeneity means comparing any single city's 2025 rate to the national average requires caution and up-to-date local counts [1] [3].
4. How the city vs. national comparison should be framed — what the data allow
Given the reported national rate near 5 per 100,000 in 2024 and mid-2025 projections of further declines, the correct comparison is that many cities remain above the national average in raw homicide rates even as they record year-over-year reductions [1] [2]. Sources show major-city declines bolstering the national trend, but also that historically high-rate cities still exceed national figures. Therefore headlines claiming that "city X is worse than the nation" can be true in level terms while simultaneously understating the broader national improvement captured by percent declines [3] [6].
5. Conflicting narratives and potential agendas — who benefits from which framing?
Different articles emphasize different takeaways: pieces stressing record-low national trends foreground the success narrative and attribute declines to post-pandemic normalization, while others highlight persistent urban outliers to question the evenly distributed benefits of crime reductions [2] [5] [1]. Political or editorial agendas can shape emphasis: arguments blaming or absolving municipal governance often select city examples fitting a narrative. Readers should note that both narratives can be factually correct yet selectively highlight data that support partisan or policy positions [1] [4].
6. What the reports omit and why that matters for 2025 comparisons
Several sources caution—or implicitly reveal—data gaps: many figures are preliminary, year-to-date, or analyst estimates rather than finalized federal tallies; causes cited (pandemic fallout, policing changes, economic factors) remain debated and are not uniformly tested across locales [4] [5]. Omitted are consistent city-by-city denominators and fully reconciled counts for the entire 2025 calendar year, which are necessary to produce definitive city-versus-national comparisons and to attribute causality with confidence [6] [3].
7. Bottom line: measured optimism, persistent local pain, and where to watch next
The preponderance of mid-2025 analyses points to substantial national declines in homicides and the plausible prospect that 2025 could approach historic lows, but city-level realities remain uneven: many cities still exceed the national average even as they record reductions, and early projections require finalization [2] [4]. Watch for final FBI and municipal year-end tallies and local public-safety reports to confirm whether provisional 2025 trends hold and to enable accurate city-to-national comparisons [6] [3].