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Fact check: How do 2025 deportation numbers compare to previous years?
Executive Summary
The available reporting and datasets indicate 2025 has seen a substantial rise in deportations compared with recent years, but the exact annual total remains uncertain; internal ICE figures and reporting suggest a pace between roughly a half‑million deportations for the year and episodic tallies that produced nearly 350,000 deportations in the opening seven months of the administration’s second term [1] [2] [3]. Several trackers and research projects have released individual‑level or partial ICE data through June 26, 2025, which supports the conclusion that removals in 2025 are materially higher than immediate prior years, though public agency reporting lags and differing counting methods leave room for alternative interpretations [4] [2].
1. What advocates and officials are claiming — bold numbers and big headlines
Reporting cites a senior Homeland Security official's claim that ICE removed nearly 200,000 people in the first seven months of the president’s administration, and other removals pushed the combined figure to nearly 350,000 deportations in those seven months—a figure used to argue 2025 could represent the highest removal rate in at least a decade [1]. Media and commentators have amplified those numbers into headlines characterizing 2025 as a record year, and some analyses explicitly state the administration’s stated aim of a million deportations is unlikely to be met, projecting instead a pace closer to half a million deportations for the year [2] [3]. These claims are anchored in internal ICE tallies and contemporary tracking by outlets compiling arrests and removals, but they rely on agency data releases that are incomplete or not uniformly comparable to prior annual reports [2].
2. What independent trackers and datasets actually show through mid‑2025
Independent projects and press trackers have compiled individual‑level ICE data covering Sept. 1, 2023 through June 26, 2025, offering a granular basis to count removals and compare trends [4]. NBC’s public tracking highlights that ICE arrest activity and convictions among arrestees have shifted, and it flags that ICE has not consistently published definitive removal totals for the public—forcing researchers to rely on internal dumps and Freedom of Information–derived data [2] [5]. The datasets available through late June 2025 show elevated removal flows compared with immediate prior years, but the partial year coverage and differing inclusion rules (e.g., interior versus border removals, administrative vs. ordered removals) mean that mid‑year totals must be extrapolated cautiously before declaring a firm annual comparison [4] [2].
3. How 2025 compares to prior years — similar patterns, bigger scale
Contextualizing 2025 requires comparing both pace and composition: the pace of removals in 2025 outstrips recent years, driven by increased interior enforcement and focused operations, according to reporting and research estimates that place projected annual removals in the hundreds of thousands rather than the lower rates seen earlier in the decade [2] [3]. The claim that 2025 could be the “highest rate of removals in at least a decade” is plausible based on the seven‑month figures and the trajectory tracked by NGOs and press databases, but it remains a projection because the federal statistical series that provides year‑over‑year apples‑to‑apples counts has been delayed and ICE’s public releases are intermittent [1] [6]. Thus, 2025 is demonstrably higher in enforcement intensity, yet exact ranking against prior full calendar years awaits finalized, standardized agency reporting [6].
4. Why different sources offer different totals — counting rules and transparency gaps
Discrepancies stem from methodological differences and reporting lags: agency internal tallies, press trackers, and third‑party datasets use varied inclusion criteria—some count expedited removals at the border, others only formal deportation orders, and still others combine ICE removals with Customs and Border Protection expulsions [2] [4]. NBC and other outlets note ICE has not regularly published complete removal totals, forcing reliance on leaks, internal briefings, and FOIA‑obtained datasets that may not match the historical public series [2] [5]. The result is multiple, credible but nonidentical estimates: internal claims of nearly 350,000 removals in seven months, independent projections of roughly half‑a‑million for the year, and ongoing efforts to compile individual‑level data through June 2025 [1] [2] [4].
5. Bottom line, uncertainties, and what to watch next
The evidence assembled from internal ICE claims and independent trackers shows 2025 is a markedly higher deportation year than recent ones, with plausible year‑end totals in the hundreds of thousands; however, definitive year‑over‑year placement requires the delayed, standardized federal reports and full‑year individual‑level data [1] [4] [6]. Watch for formal ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations releases and updates from projects that have compiled Sept. 2023–June 2025 individual records; these will clarify whether mid‑year trajectories translate into the headline‑grabbing annual totals some officials claim and will resolve methodological differences that currently produce divergent totals [5] [4].