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Fact check: How do 2025 murder rates compare to previous years in major US cities?
Executive Summary
Across multiple analyses, 2025 shows substantial declines in murders in many major U.S. cities compared with the recent peak years, with several data compilations and local dashboards describing historically low homicide counts through portions of 2025. That said, the picture is not uniform: some cities remain elevated relative to pre-pandemic baselines, a handful saw notable increases between 2023 and 2024, and methodological differences — from city dashboards to multi-city studies — produce divergent city-level takeaways [1] [2] [3] [4].
1. Cities Celebrating Historic Drops — What the Numbers Say Loudly
Multiple contemporaneous reports describe marked year-to-date declines in homicides for 2025 in high-profile cities. A July 2025 newsletter summarized broad downward trends, citing New York City’s lowest recorded shootings and murders January–May 2025 and Baltimore’s lowest homicide total in over 50 years [1]. Jeff Asher’s late-September analysis projects the FBI will likely report the lowest murder rate ever recorded in 2025, estimating a 15–20 percent fall versus 2024 and referencing real-time crime indices and UCR program trends [4]. These accounts converge on a clear message: many large cities experienced declines in murders during 2025 so far.
2. Not Everyone Improved — Cities with Persistent or Rising Homicides
Analysts emphasize important exceptions: an academic study in June 2025 found roughly half of large cities saw declines from pre-pandemic levels while others remained elevated, naming New York, Houston, and Fort Worth among those still above earlier baselines even as other cities fell [2]. The Council on Criminal Justice’s map-based study documented that across 29 cities homicides fell 16 percent from 2023 to 2024, but six cities increased — Colorado Springs up 56 percent being the largest single change — and 12 saw decreases [3]. City-by-city variance matters for policy and public perception.
3. Aggregate National Context — Is the U.S. Heading to a Low-Crime Era?
Nationally oriented sources point toward a broader decline. The FBI’s 2024 annual report and analyses published in 2025 portray overall crime rates near decades-long lows, with violent crime down 4.5 percent and property crime down 8.1 percent in 2024, implying a potential continuation into 2025 [5]. Complementing this, private analysts claimed large early-2025 reductions — for example, Jeff-alytics estimated violent crime down about 14 percent year-to-date in 2025 [6]. These aggregated signals suggest a genuine nationwide downward trend, though timing and magnitude differ across datasets.
4. Conflicting Metrics — Real-time Indexes, City Dashboards, and Private Reports
Discrepancies arise from data collection and scope differences: real-time city dashboards capture raw counts, academic studies often normalize to rates and baselines, and private indices may use distinct metro boundaries or crime categorizations. The Pinkerton Crime Index, for instance, reported increased property crime in 12 large metros and mixed violent crime outcomes, indicating sector-specific divergences and metropolitan heterogeneity [7]. When analysts declare “lowest ever” outcomes, they may be comparing different denominators — count versus per-capita rate — and timeframes, which explains apparent contradictions between sources.
5. Local Success Stories and Methodological Caution — Milwaukee as an Example
City-level audits illustrate the mix of progress and caution. Milwaukee’s homicide and shooting counts, per local review commission data, fell substantially in 2025: nonfatal shootings down 39 percent and homicides down 12 percent, according to a September analysis [8]. Such local datasets are valuable for granular insight but are vulnerable to reporting lags, reclassifications, and local policing or recording changes. Analysts warn that short-term declines can reverse and that single-city improvements do not automatically reflect national trajectories.
6. Political Uses and Communication Risks — Crime as a Political Talking Point
High-profile political actors have leveraged crime data selectively; President Trump spotlighted cities such as Baltimore, Washington, D.C., and Chicago to make broader claims about urban crime [9]. Experts caution that city-by-city rankings can mislead, since differences in population, economy, and reporting practices distort comparisons. Recognizing potential agendas behind selective citations is essential: some outlets emphasize drops to signal progress, others highlight increases to call for policy change, so context and full-series data matter for accurate interpretation.
7. Bottom Line — A Nuanced, Cautious Optimism Supported by Multiple Sources
The preponderance of 2025 data across independent city dashboards, academic studies, national FBI reporting, and private indices points to meaningful reductions in murders in many major U.S. cities, with several jurisdictions reaching historic lows through portions of 2025 [1] [3] [4] [5]. However, heterogeneity remains: some cities are elevated versus pre-pandemic norms, a few saw increases in 2023–24, and methodological differences across sources produce variability in claims [2] [3] [7]. Interpreting the trend requires attention to city-level context, denominators used, and potential reporting artifacts.