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Fact check: How does the 2025 murder rate in Washington D.C. compare to the national average?
Executive Summary
The available 2025 data indicate Washington, D.C.’s homicide count and rate fell in 2025 compared with 2024, with multiple local reports citing declines of roughly 19–25% and absolute homicide counts near the mid‑double digits, while national measures also show a substantial drop in murders from 2024 to 2025. Comparing D.C.’s 2025 homicide totals to a national average requires caution: sources report different denominators (counts vs. rates per 100,000), disparate time frames (first half vs. full year), and varying substance, so a simple statement that D.C. is above or below the national average depends on which metric and period are used [1] [2] [3] [4].
1. Why the headlines differ: local counts versus national rates that grab attention
News and agency reports take different tacks: local sources emphasize absolute counts and year‑over‑year percentage drops in the city, while national snapshots use rates per 100,000 or aggregated totals. The Metro PD’s dataset lists 113 murders in 2025 for Washington, D.C., down 25% from 150 in 2024, a figure framed as a city-level achievement but unaccompanied by a national per‑capita benchmark [2]. By contrast, FBI summaries report nationwide murder rates falling to about 5 per 100,000 in 2024 and broadly note a ~15% nationwide decline in 2024, but they do not publish a standardized national 2025 per‑capita rate in the provided analyses, making crosswalks imprecise without matched denominators [4] [5].
2. Multiple local indicators point the same way: D.C. is down, but magnitude varies
City‑focused trend reports converge on meaningful homicide declines in D.C. during 2025, though magnitude differs across datasets. The Council on Criminal Justice documents a 19% drop in the first half of 2025 versus the same period in 2024 and a 65% decrease from a peak in August 2023, suggesting a rapid local turnaround concentrated after mid‑2023 [1]. The Major Cities Chiefs Association notes 85 homicides in D.C. in 2025, down from 89 in 2024, a smaller absolute decline than the Metro PD’s 113 vs. 150 comparison, highlighting inconsistencies between reporting windows and case definitions [3] [2].
3. The national picture: fewer murders overall but different measurement frames
National surveys and FBI reporting show a noticeable drop in murders from 2024 into 2025, with the Major Cities Chiefs Association citing 2,800 homicides nationally in 2025 versus 3,460 in 2024, and FBI materials describing a ~14.9% decrease in murder and nonnegligent manslaughter in 2024 [3] [4]. These national figures provide context for D.C.’s decline: both the city and the country moved down, but the national numbers aggregate many cities and rural areas and may obscure local variance. Because the national statistics are frequently presented as counts or rates for differing periods, direct rate comparisons with D.C. require synchronized timeframes and population bases that some sources here do not supply [5].
4. Data mismatches that complicate a clean comparison
The principal obstacle to a definitive ranking is inconsistent metrics: some sources report absolute homicides (counts), others report homicide rates per 100,000, and still others report percent changes or partial‑year totals. For example, the Metro PD gives a 2025 count of 113 but does not provide the corresponding per‑capita rate in the analyses presented, whereas the FBI gives a national 5 per 100,000 2024 rate without a clear 2025 per‑capita follow‑up [2] [4]. Additionally, the Major Cities Chiefs provides city counts (85 for D.C.) that conflict numerically with the Metro PD number, indicating differences in case inclusion, time cutoffs, or data curation [3] [2].
5. What can be reliably said: directionality, not exact placement
Across the datasets, the reliable finding is directional: both Washington, D.C., and the United States saw fewer murders in 2025 than in 2024. Local reports emphasize larger percentage drops in D.C., driven by declines after a 2023 peak, while national summaries document a broad decline in homicide counts into 2025 [1] [3] [5]. However, whether D.C.’s per‑capita homicide rate in 2025 is above or below the national per‑capita rate cannot be established from the supplied analyses without harmonizing counts to the same population base and time period [2] [4].
6. What to watch and questions left unanswered by the available data
Key missing elements obstruct a conclusive comparison: a consistent per‑100,000 homicide rate for D.C. in 2025, a matched national per‑100,000 rate for the same period, and standardized reporting windows across sources. The conflicting D.C. counts (85 vs. 113 vs. 179 in earlier years) suggest differing case definitions and reporting cutoffs [6] [3] [2]. For policymakers and reporters seeking clarity, the needed next step is a reconciliation of Metro PD case‑level data with federal datasets, presented as synchronized annualized rates per 100,000 with transparent dates and inclusion criteria [2] [5].
7. Bottom line for readers who want a short answer now
Short answer: Both Washington, D.C., and the nation experienced declines in murders into 2025, but the available analyses do not provide harmonized per‑capita rates to definitively state whether D.C.’s 2025 homicide rate was above or below the national average. The preponderance of local sources reports notable reductions in D.C., and national sources report significant decreases overall, but a precise comparison hinges on uniform metrics and synchronized time frames that the current sources do not all supply [1] [2] [4].