Have crime rates in Baltimore gone down in 2024 and 2025 despite having less officers? Is there a shortage of police officers?
Executive summary
Baltimore recorded sizable declines in homicides and shootings in both 2024 and 2025 according to city and independent reporting, even as the police department grappled with staffing shortfalls relative to authorized levels; officials say aggressive recruitment and improved retention narrowed but did not eliminate a multi-hundred‑officer gap [1] [2] [3] [4]. Multiple city sources and analysts credit a mix of the police department’s strategies, community violence‑intervention work and prosecutorial shifts for the decline, while other outlets emphasize tough enforcement of repeat offenders — but the reporting does not support a single definitive causal claim [5] [6] [7].
1. The headline numbers: big drops in 2024 and even larger drops in 2025
The Baltimore Police Department reported double‑digit reductions in gun violence in 2024 — notably a 23% drop in homicides (201 in 2024 v. 261 prior) and a 34% reduction in non‑fatal shootings — and followed that with further declines in 2025, with the department citing another large year‑over‑year fall in homicides and non‑fatal shootings [1] [8]; independent outlets and analysts put 2025 homicides even lower, with The Baltimore Banner and other reporting showing homicide totals falling from 194 in 2024 to roughly 131 in 2025 or similar ranges depending on the dataset cited [2] [7].
2. Fewer officers on paper, but active hiring and retention gains
Despite the declines in violence, Baltimore has been operating below its authorized officer strength for years; reporting noted the city was short “hundreds” of officers and in some analyses nearly 600 short of a 3,100 authorized level or well under the 2,600 some officials say is needed for full staffing [3] [4]. At the same time, BPD pointed to substantial hiring — 160 trainees in 2024 and hundreds more hires and cadets across 2024–2025, plus reduced attrition in 2025 — indicating active efforts to rebuild ranks even while a gap persisted [1] [2].
3. Did crime fall despite fewer officers? The record says yes, but with caveats
Measured outcomes show violent crime down in 2024 and further down in 2025 even while the department reported being understaffed relative to targets, so empirically the declines occurred amid a historically slimmed police force [1] [2] [5]. However, multiple sources caution against attributing the trend to staffing levels alone: city officials attribute progress to a multi‑pronged violence reduction strategy — including Group Violence Reduction, community partnerships, data‑driven deployments and stronger case clearance rates — and prosecutors point to tougher focus on repeat offenders, meaning reductions likely reflect a mix of enforcement, prosecutorial policy and community interventions rather than a simple staffing effect [5] [6] [7].
4. Competing explanations and the limits of available reporting
City press releases and local reporting emphasize collaborative strategies and better clearance rates as drivers of the decline [1] [6], while conservative outlets and the State’s Attorney highlight aggressive prosecution of repeat violent offenders as central [7]. Independent analysts like the Council on Criminal Justice corroborate declines across multiple categories through mid‑2025 but note trends vary by crime type and time period, underscoring that causation remains contested in the public record [9]. The sources provided do not include peer‑reviewed causal studies; therefore, while multiple plausible contributing factors are documented, none of the reporting supplied proves which factor was decisive.
5. Is there a police officer shortage right now?
Yes — reporting consistently describes Baltimore as operating with a substantial shortfall relative to authorized staffing levels and to what officials say is needed, even while recruitment improved in 2024–2025; articles cite being “short hundreds” of officers and specific estimates such as roughly 600 below authorized complements [3] [4]. At the same time, 2025 reporting shows hiring and lower attrition improving the situation, meaning the shortage is shrinking but remains a material workforce issue for the city [2] [1].