Fact check: What is the current murder rate in Baltimore, MD compared to last year?

1. Summary of the results

Based on the official data from Baltimore authorities, the murder rate in Baltimore, MD has significantly decreased compared to last year. The Baltimore Police Department's 2025 Mid-Year Crime Report shows a 22% decrease in homicides, with 68 homicides in 2025 compared to 88 in 2024 ^[1].

Mayor Brandon M. Scott's office provides slightly different figures, reporting 84 homicides as of July 2025, representing a 24.3% decrease compared to the same period last year ^[2]. Another mayoral statement confirms 68 homicides in the first six months of 2025, marking a 22.7% decrease ^[3]. The mayor's office emphasizes that this represents the fewest recorded homicides in over 50 years ^{[2] [3]}.

Additional context from NPR indicates that Baltimore had 111 homicides in the first seven months of 2024, compared to the current year's significantly lower numbers ^[4].

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints

The original question lacks several important contextual elements that would provide a more complete picture:

• Historical perspective: The analyses reveal this is not just a year-over-year improvement, but represents the lowest homicide numbers in over five decades ^{[2] [3]}, which provides crucial context about the magnitude of this change.
• Seasonal variations: The data primarily covers the first six to seven months of the year, and murder rates can fluctuate seasonally, which isn't addressed in the question.
• Underlying factors: The question doesn't explore what policies, social changes, or law enforcement strategies might be contributing to this dramatic reduction.
• Comparative context: There's no comparison to other major cities or national trends that would help contextualize whether Baltimore's improvement is unique or part of broader patterns.

3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement

The original question itself is neutral and factual in nature, simply asking for current data compared to the previous year. However, there are some considerations:

• Political implications: The significant decrease in murder rates would clearly benefit Mayor Brandon M. Scott politically, as reducing violent crime is a key campaign promise and governance metric ^{[2] [3] [5]}. The mayor's office has been actively promoting these statistics, which could suggest selective emphasis on positive trends.
• Data timing: The analyses show slight discrepancies in the exact numbers and percentages reported by different official sources, with figures ranging from 22% to 24.3% decreases, which could indicate different reporting periods or methodologies being used strategically.
• Missing broader context: While the question is straightforward, it doesn't account for potential data manipulation concerns or the possibility that other crime categories might have increased, which could provide a more nuanced view of public safety trends.