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Fact check: How does the crime rate in Chicago compare to other major US cities like New York and Los Angeles from 2020 to 2025?
Executive Summary
Chicago’s violent-crime levels from 2020–2025 show a mixed picture: year-to-year declines in homicides and shootings alongside persistent violent-crime rates that, by some FBI-derived comparisons in 2025, are lower than New York and Los Angeles. Different datasets and metrics (counts, rates per 100,000, cost-per-capita, and intra-city disparities) produce contrasting impressions; careful comparison requires consistent definitions and the same time windows [1] [2] [3].
1. What the original claims actually said—and what they left out
The original materials claim Chicago’s 2025 six-month violent-crime counts and that FBI-derived violent-crime rates place Chicago below New York and Los Angeles, with figures of roughly 540 per 100,000 for Chicago versus about 671 and 728 for New York and Los Angeles respectively. These statements present citywide rates and an absolute six-month count for Chicago, but omit consistent multi-year annual rates for 2020–2024, differences in reporting windows, and demographic or neighborhood breakdowns that shape lived experience [4] [1].
2. The broader trend across 2020–2024: modest declines but complex patterns
University of Chicago Crime Lab analyses show Chicago experienced declines in homicides (about 7.3%) and non-fatal shootings (about 3.7%) through 2024, though violent crime remained above the five-year average and lethality increased, signaling complex shifts rather than simple improvement. These findings emphasize that aggregated citywide statistics can mask rising lethality and persistent hotspots; the trend is not uniform across neighborhoods or demographic groups [2] [5].
3. How Chicago compares to New York and Los Angeles in 2025 snapshots
A 2025 media synthesis of FBI data reports Chicago’s violent-crime rate lower than New York and Los Angeles in that snapshot, listing Chicago ~540, New York ~671, Los Angeles ~728 violent crimes per 100,000 residents. This comparison uses FBI-based per-capita rates, which facilitate cross-city comparison, but such snapshots can mislead if they cover different months or are not averaged annually; counts (like Chicago’s six-month totals) cannot be directly compared to full-year rates without adjustment [1] [4].
4. Why methodology and definitions matter in comparing cities
The FBI UCR program’s definitions and collection practices shape reported rates; differences in reporting timing, classification of incidents, and whether agencies submit complete monthly data affect inter-city comparisons. The provided FBI materials stress methodology but lack city-specific rate outputs in the dataset excerpt, underscoring the need to align time frames and reporting standards before declaring one city “safer” than another based on headline rates [6].
5. Alternative metrics change the story: costs and property crime trends
Beyond violent-crime rates, cost-per-capita and property-crime trends shift the picture. Analyses find the cost of crime per capita in Chicago at $3,304, above the national per-capita average, and national-level data through 2025 show declines in property crime and violent crime year-to-date in some months. These economic and property-crime measures capture broader social and fiscal burdens that raw violent-crime rates do not [3] [7].
6. Unequal impacts: race, place, and increased lethality within Chicago
Crime-lab findings highlight stark disparities: Black residents faced dramatically higher homicide risk—about 22 times that of white residents—while shooting lethality rose, indicating that aggregate declines in counts do not equate to equitable improvements. These intra-city disparities matter for policy and public safety perception, and they complicate comparisons with other cities that have different demographic and neighborhood patterns [5].
7. Reconciling divergent sources: what is robust and what is tentative
Robust points include documented declines in Chicago homicides/shootings through 2024 (Crime Lab) and the FBI-based 2025 snapshot placing Chicago below NY and LA in violent-crime rates (Newsweek summary of FBI data). Tentative points include cross-city ranking claims without standardized time windows and the six-month Chicago counts that aren’t directly comparable to annual rates. Confidence rises when comparing annualized, per-100,000 rates from the same source and calendar period [2] [1] [4].
8. Bottom line and where to look next for verification
The best-supported conclusion: Chicago’s violent-crime picture between 2020–2025 shows modest declines in key measures alongside persistent disparities, and a 2025 FBI-based snapshot ranked its violent-crime rate below New York and Los Angeles. For precise, reproducible comparisons, consult the FBI UCR/CIUS annual tables and city CompStat or police department annual reports, and pair those with local research centers (Crime Lab) to capture demographics and lethality—use consistent calendar years and per-100,000 measures when comparing cities [6] [2] [1].