Fact check: How do crime rates in Chicago compare to other major US cities in 2025?

1. Snippets from the record: what the main claims actually say and why they matter

The analyses present three central claims: the Major Cities Chiefs Association’s Violent Crime Survey lists detailed midyear counts for Chicago (homicides, rapes, robberies, aggravated assaults) for Jan–Jun 2025; Newsweek reports Chicago’s violent‑crime rate at about 540 per 100,000, lower than New York and Los Angeles but far below the highest among the largest cities; and national reporting finds violent crime declining in 2024, creating a tension between statistical improvement and sustained public fear. Those three claims frame comparisons as count‑based, rate‑based, and trend‑based perspectives. ^{[1] [2] [4]}

2. The raw midyear numbers show Chicago’s scale and composition of violence

The Major Cities Chiefs Association’s midyear breakdown for Jan 1–Jun 30, 2025 lists 189 homicides, 946 rapes, 2,987 robberies, and 7,222 aggravated assaults in Chicago, giving a concrete picture of the city’s violent‑crime composition and volume for the first half of 2025. Those counts matter because they reveal that aggravated assault and robbery account for the majority of reported violent incidents, even as murder counts drive headlines; comparing these categories across cities requires per‑capita normalization, which the raw counts alone do not provide. ^[1]

3. Per‑capita comparisons place Chicago below some peers but above others

Newsweek’s headline comparison emphasizes rates: Chicago’s violent‑crime rate of roughly 540 per 100,000 residents places it lower than New York and Los Angeles but substantially lower than Houston, which the piece identifies as having the highest violent‑crime rate among the ten largest police departments at about 1,148 per 100,000. Per‑capita metrics flip the view from Chicago being a top outlier in raw counts to a mid‑tier city by rate, highlighting how city size and population density distort raw comparisons. ^[2]

4. National trend data complicate the story: declines but uneven geography

Contemporary reporting and FBI‑derived summaries show a nationwide decline in violent crime in 2024—CBS and other outlets note about a 4.5% drop from 2023—while experts caution that perception hasn’t caught up with the data. Chicago’s city leaders cite targeted strategies and technology as contributors to local declines, aligning the city with the broader national downtrend even as localized spikes or high‑profile incidents sustain public anxiety. ^{[3] [4]}

5. Different cities, different crime types — the picture is not uniform

Supplementary indices and regional reports underscore variability: some places saw rising property crime or area‑specific increases while others declined, indicating crime trends are not synchronized across metropolitan areas. This heterogeneity means Chicago’s trajectory—declines in some violent categories but persistent problems in others—cannot be generalized to all major cities; city‑level policing strategies, socioeconomic factors, and reporting practices produce divergent outcomes. ^{[5] [1]}

6. Important caveats: sources, timeframes, and what’s left out of many comparisons

Comparisons rely on a mix of midyear surveys, annual FBI aggregates, and media rate calculations, each with limitations: the Major Cities Chiefs survey is midyear and focused on large agencies; FBI UCR and CIUS tables use different reporting windows and collection methods; media rate estimates depend on denominators and which jurisdictions are included. These methodological choices change rankings and perceptions, so no single data point gives a definitive “Chicago is X” answer without accounting for these constraints. ^{[1] [6]}

7. What policymakers and the public should take away about 2025 comparisons

For 2025, the bottom line is that Chicago is not the nation’s worst by per‑capita violent‑crime rate according to available midyear analyses, but it remains a major outlier in absolute incident numbers and in specific neighborhoods. Political narratives—whether focusing on a city’s rate being better than larger peers or highlighting high local counts—serve different agendas and shape public perception. Evaluations of safety should therefore weigh both rates and local context, and monitor full‑year FBI releases for a more complete comparison. ^{[2] [3] [6]}