What were Chicago's violent crime trends each year from 2015 to 2024 (homicide, robbery, aggravated assault)?
Executive summary
Chicago’s violent‑crime picture shifted markedly from 2015–2024: homicides and shootings trended upward into the pandemic years (peaking around 2020–2021) and then fell through 2022–2024, while aggravated assaults and robberies showed mixed signals with aggravated assault hitting a two‑decade high in 2024 even as some overall violent‑crime totals fell (Chicago reported 28,443 violent crimes in 2024 and multiple sources put 2024 homicides between 571–593 depending on counting) [1] [2] [3]. Available sources do not provide a single, year‑by‑year table for homicide, robbery and aggravated assault from 2015–2024 in one place; reporting must be assembled across police, city and research releases [4] [5].
1. The headline arc: pandemic spike, then decline
Researchers and city dashboards describe a clear arc: violent crime lethality rose into 2020, spiked during the pandemic years, and then declined in 2022–2024 — lethality fell in 2022 (-11%), 2023 (-24%) and again in 2024 (-3%) in the Council on Criminal Justice trend summary through 2024 [6] [7]. The University of Chicago Crime Lab likewise reports murders and non‑fatal shootings continued to decline from their peak in 2020–2021 even as aggregate violent‑crime counts remained above some multi‑year averages [3] [8].
2. Homicides: high in 2020–2021, lower by 2024 — but counts differ by source
Multiple outlets report a sharp rise in homicides through 2020–2021 followed by declines into 2024. The Chicago Tribune and other reporting list 573 homicides for calendar year 2024 [2]; the Illinois Policy Center and others cite 572–573 depending on rounding [1] [9]. The BBC notes a CPD figure of 591 homicides in 2024 but highlights differences between CPD and FBI totals (FBI lower) and reporting lags [10]. Analysts caution that different data feeds (CPD, FBI, compiled research datasets) produce different year totals and rates [11] [10].
3. Aggravated assault: rising and headline‑worthy in 2024
The Illinois Policy Center and several summaries report aggravated assaults reaching a 20‑year high in 2024 (8,039 aggravated assaults reported, and larger counts when aggravated battery is included) and identify aggravated assaults and aggravated batteries as primary drivers of elevated violent‑crime aggregates in recent years [1] [8]. The Crime Lab also notes aggravated assaults and robberies as main contributors to the city’s violent‑crime level being higher than a 5‑year average in its end‑of‑year analysis [3] [8].
4. Robbery: mixed trends, local spikes
Reporting points to robberies (excluding carjackings) being among the contributors to higher violent‑crime totals in some analyses, but sources characterize robbery trends as uneven across neighborhoods and months rather than a uniform rise or fall citywide [3] [8]. The University of Chicago Crime Lab specifically flags robberies as part of the reason violent crime remained above the five‑year average even as shootings and murders fell [3].
5. Numbers vary because of differing definitions and data pipelines
City dashboards (Mayor’s Office Violence Reduction Dashboard, CPD datasets) expand the FBI violent‑crime definition to include shootings and aggravated battery, so totals can differ depending on whether a source uses CPD, FBI, or independent compilations; the CPD sometimes reports higher homicide counts to local agencies than the FBI’s published totals because of reporting lags or classification differences [4] [10]. Analysts explicitly warn against comparing raw counts without noting these definitional and reporting differences [11] [7].
6. What the year‑by‑year reader should know and next steps for verification
Available sources summarize trends and provide endpoints (notably the 2015 baseline context, the 2020–21 peak, and 2024 reductions), but none of the provided items offers a single authoritative, fully reconciled year‑by‑year table for homicide, robbery and aggravated assault for every year 2015–2024. To build that table, consult the CPD/City data portal homicide and crimes datasets (city portal homicide map and crime files) and reconcile with annual CPD summaries and FBI annual Uniform Crime Reports or NIBRS feeds for each year 2015–2024 [5] [12] [13]. The CPD and University of Chicago Crime Lab visualizations are recommended starting points for month‑level and year‑level reconciliation [4] [3].
Limitations: This analysis uses only the supplied reporting and notes disagreements where they exist (different homicide totals for 2024, contrasting characterizations of robbery trends). If you want, I can pull the CPD annual totals from the City data portal and assemble a year‑by‑year table for homicide, robbery and aggravated assault from 2015–2024 to reconcile these differences and cite each yearly source [12] [13].