How do crime rates in Canadian cities compare to those in the United States under similar rule?
Executive summary
Canada’s police‑reported violent crime rate remained lower than the United States in 2023 — 252 incidents per 100,000 in Canada versus 334 per 100,000 in the U.S. — although the gap has narrowed over decades and some Canadian cities rank high on property‑crime lists [1] [2]. National trends show rising recent crime in both countries, with Canada’s homicide and some violent‑crime measures increasing faster since 2014 even as U.S. firearm‑related homicide rates stay higher overall [3] [1].
1. Two national pictures, one converging trend
At the national level, Statistics Canada reports that in 2023 violent crime was still lower in Canada (252 per 100,000) than in the United States (334 per 100,000), a difference of roughly one‑third, but the historical gap has narrowed from much larger differences in prior decades [1]. Both countries saw long declines in many crime types through the 1990s and 2000s and more recent increases in several offence categories, so the headline is convergence rather than outright parity [2] [1].
2. Homicide and firearms: the U.S. outlier, persistently
Most analysts point to firearm‑related homicides as the main reason U.S. violent‑crime rates remain higher. Statistics Canada explicitly highlights that elevated U.S. firearm homicides account for much of the cross‑border difference [1]. Historical comparisons find the U.S. homicide rate substantially higher than Canada’s in many periods; older reports even noted multiples in the U.S. rate versus Canada [4].
3. Canadian increases: faster growth but lower base
Recent years show Canada's homicide rate and some violent‑crime measures rising faster in percentage terms since about 2014. The Fraser Institute notes Canadian homicide rose from 1.5 to 2.3 per 100,000 (about a 53% increase) between 2014 and 2022, while U.S. homicide rose from 3.9 to 5.8 (about 49%) — meaning Canada’s rate climbed faster though stayed lower in absolute terms [3]. That dynamic — rapid growth off a lower base — is central to debates about public perception and policy.
4. City‑level complexity: some Canadian cities rank poorly for property crime
City comparisons flatten important variation. The Fraser Institute’s metropolitan ranking of 2019–2022 data finds Canadian Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) make up about 10% of the urban sample but represent 24% of the worst‑performing 10% for property crime, while accounting for only 3% of the worst 10% for violent crime [2]. This signals an east‑west pattern and metropolitan heterogeneity: some Canadian cities face significant property‑crime problems even as violent crime remains comparatively lower [2] [5].
5. Measurement matters: different offence definitions and reporting
Comparisons require caution because offence definitions and recording practices differ. For example, what Canada calls “assault level 1” is included as violent crime in Canadian counts but is not classified the same way in U.S. data — a factor that can make unadjusted violent‑crime rates appear closer or even higher in Canada depending on the measures used [5]. The StatCan–FBI uniform reporting work emphasizes the need to harmonize categories when comparing nations [6] [7].
6. Explanations: guns, demography and policing, and competing interpretations
Analysts propose multiple explanatory threads. U.S. higher rates are repeatedly linked to firearm availability, structural inequalities, and different social patterns; older comparative work stresses culture, drug markets, and socio‑economic segregation as factors [8] [4]. Canadian commentators and institutes point to rising property and some violent offences and suggest policy, policing, and local conditions explain metropolitan variation [3] [2]. These are competing — not mutually exclusive — viewpoints present in the reporting.
7. Limitations and what the sources don’t settle
Available sources do not offer a single definitive causal explanation that both countries accept; they provide patterns, caveats about measurement, and competing interpretations [6] [5] [3]. Data snapshots through 2022–2023 show trends but cannot predict future trajectories; longer time series and harmonized offence definitions are required to settle whether convergence will continue [6] [1].
8. What readers should take away
Nationally, the United States still records higher violent‑crime and homicide rates, largely driven by firearms, but Canada’s rates have risen faster in recent years and some Canadian cities show acute property‑crime problems [1] [3] [2]. Any cross‑border comparison must account for differing offence definitions, metropolitan variation, and the risk of conflating percentage increases with absolute risk — the sources make these limitations explicit [5] [2].