Crime rate at us borders dec 2024 and dec 2025
Executive summary
Official and media analyses show violent crime in many U.S. border communities fell in 2024 and early 2025 even as federal enforcement actions and encounters plunged: the 11 border communities studied had an average violent‑crime rate near 356–359 incidents per 100,000 in 2024 and a homicide rate of about 2.5 per 100,000 — roughly half the national homicide rate of 5 per 100,000 — according to FBI data reported by Axios and other outlets [1] [2]. Federal agencies report steep drops in southwest border encounters — more than 60% between May 2024 and December 2024, per DHS — and CBP records show large year‑to‑year declines in fiscal‑year encounters into 2025 [3] [4].
1. Border cities’ crime rates fell in 2024, per FBI analyses
Multiple summaries of FBI data show that the 11 U.S. border communities examined had an average violent‑crime rate just under the national average in 2024 — about 356.5–359 incidents per 100,000 residents — and reported a low homicide rate of 2.5 per 100,000, roughly half the national homicide rate of 5 per 100,000, signaling that many border cities were safer than national headlines suggested [1] [2].
2. Federal enforcement and crossings plunged late 2024 into 2025
The Department of Homeland Security and CBP reports point to a major fall in illegal‑border encounters: DHS said encounters between ports of entry on the southwest border fell more than 60% from May 2024 through December 2024 and that November–December encounters were at their lowest since August 2020 [3]. CBP’s FY2024 statistics cover October 2023–September 2024 and are the official repository for enforcement figures cited by analysts [4].
3. Journalistic reporting links lower encounters with lower local crime in early 2025
Reporting by Axios and others interprets the reductions in crossings and federal removals as correlated with continued declines in violent crime in border cities in early 2025, noting that early 2025 numbers indicate overall violent crime in those border communities continued to drop [1] [2]. Those reports also note exceptions and local variation: for example, El Paso experienced a notable homicide jump in the first half of 2025 according to the Major Cities Chiefs Association [1].
4. Official CBP/ICE data emphasize criminal‑noncitizen figures but have limits
CBP publishes “criminal noncitizen” and criminal‑alien statistics for FY2017–FY2024 (and through FY2025 in updated pages), which track encounters and convictions tied to persons interdicted at the border; those datasets are useful but do not measure overall community crime rates, nor do they capture crimes by non‑encountered migrants or crimes outside the jurisdictions reporting FBI UCR numbers [4] [5] [6].
5. Independent analyses and advocacy outlets show similar trends but differ in framing
Separate outlets — from Axios to Latin Times to academic writeups — converge on the core empirical point that violent crime fell nationally from 2023 to 2024 and that many border cities had violent‑crime rates below the national average [1] [2] [7]. They diverge on explanations: some attribute declines to enforcement and policy changes, while others emphasize long‑term trends in declining crime and local factors; the sources do not agree on single causal attribution [1] [3] [7].
6. Data gaps and cautions: what reporting does not settle
Available sources do not offer a complete, single nationwide measure labeled “crime rate at US borders Dec 2024 and Dec 2025” covering every border jurisdiction; the reported figures focus on specific sets of border communities (11 cities) or on fiscal‑year enforcement numbers rather than calendar‑month crime rates for December 2025 [1] [3] [4]. The sources also do not provide finalized FBI UCR or NIBRS breakdowns explicitly dated to December 2025 for all border localities — those datasets either cover 2024 or early 2025 snapshots [1] [4].
7. Competing narratives: safety vs. security policy victories
Federal releases (DHS/CBP) present the drop in encounters as evidence of a more secure border and highlight enforcement and policy steps as decisive [3] [4]. News analyses and academics point to falling violent‑crime trends predating and extending beyond recent policy shifts, and some pieces stress that low border city crime rates contradict political claims tying migration to crime spikes [1] [2] [7]. Both perspectives rely on overlapping data but draw different policy implications.
8. Bottom line and practical next steps for readers
If you want a precise, month‑by‑month crime rate for a specific border city in December 2024 or December 2025, consult the FBI’s UCR/NIBRS releases for those calendar months and local police department crime dashboards, and cross‑check with CBP enforcement summaries for encounter context — current reporting shows broad declines in both violent crime in many border cities in 2024 and in southwest border encounters through late 2024 and into 2025, but sources do not provide a single definitive “December 2025 border crime rate” figure in the materials reviewed here [1] [3] [4].