What is the ratio of illegal immigrants and citizens commiting crimes
Executive summary
The best available empirical research finds that undocumented immigrants commit and are arrested for serious crimes at substantially lower rates than U.S.-born citizens: across multiple studies undocumented populations show roughly half—or less—of the violent and drug-offense arrest rates of U.S.-born residents and far lower rates for property crimes [1] [2]. These results come mainly from Texas arrest records and large cross‑study reviews; they are robust across several analyses but are constrained by measurement choices (arrests vs convictions vs offending) and by the geographic concentration of high-quality data [2] [3] [1].
1. What the quantitative studies actually report: ratios and magnitudes
Researchers using Texas Department of Public Safety arrest data from 2012–2018 found that U.S.-born citizens were more than twice as likely as undocumented immigrants to be arrested for violent crimes, about 2.5 times as likely for drug crimes, and over four times as likely for property crimes—figures that translate into undocumented arrest rates that are roughly 40–50% (or lower) of citizen rates depending on offense type [2] [3]. The National Institute of Justice summarized that undocumented individuals were arrested at less than half the rate of native-born citizens for violent and drug crimes and at about one-quarter the rate for property crimes in the Texas data [1]. Other analyses extend the pattern—one multi‑decadal study found immigrants have become about 60% less likely to be incarcerated than U.S.-born citizens in recent periods (a relative rate around 0.4) [4].
2. Why those ratios are emphasized: data sources and robustness
The clearest numerical ratios come from Texas because it uniquely records immigration status on arrest reports, enabling direct comparisons; that single-state advantage underlies several high‑profile papers and summaries [2] [3]. Multiple organizations—NIJ, Migration Policy Institute, Brennan Center and academic journals—have emphasized consistent results across methods and sensitivity checks: changing population estimates, classifying “undocumented” differently, or substituting convictions for arrests did not overturn the basic finding that undocumented rates are lower than U.S.-born rates [1] [5] [6].
3. What the numbers do not prove and measurement caveats
Arrests are an imperfect proxy for actual offending because they reflect policing practices, reporting rates, and investigatory priorities; NIJ explicitly notes that arrest data partly reflect law enforcement activity rather than pure offending [1]. Texas-centric findings may not generalize perfectly nationwide because immigration mixes, enforcement practices, and crime patterns differ by state and locality [7]. Some researchers also separate legal immigrants from undocumented populations and find differences across those groups, underscoring that “immigrants” are not a uniform category [8] [2].
4. The counter‑narratives and political context
High‑visibility crimes by undocumented individuals have driven political narratives claiming an immigrant‑led crime wave, but multiple empirical reviews and fact sheets from policy groups counter that framing and point to stable or declining proportions of arrests involving undocumented immigrants [6] [9]. Organizations advocating for immigrant rights emphasize community safety benefits and caution that punitive immigration enforcement would not materially reduce homicide or overall crime rates per the statistical evidence [10] [7]. Conversely, opponents argue public safety concerns justify stricter controls; empirical studies cited above, however, do not corroborate a higher offending rate among undocumented people [2] [5].
5. How to translate ratios into practical understanding
Summarizing the best available evidence: for serious felony categories, undocumented individuals in studied datasets are arrested at roughly 25–50% of the rates for U.S.-born citizens depending on crime type (violent/drug ≈ <50%; property ≈ ≈25%) and U.S.-born residents are typically 2–4 times more likely to appear in those arrest counts [1] [2] [3]. These are relative rates, not absolute counts of perpetrators, and they do not mean crimes by undocumented individuals do not occur—only that on average the per‑person measured risk is lower in these datasets [1] [2].
Conclusion
The preponderance of peer‑reviewed studies and policy analyses finds that undocumented immigrants commit and are arrested for serious crimes at substantially lower rates than native‑born Americans—ratios that commonly fall between roughly one‑quarter and one‑half of U.S.-born rates depending on offense—while important caveats about arrests as imperfect measures and the geographic concentration of detailed data temper categorical claims [2] [1] [4]. Where debates persist, they are political and anecdotal rather than rooted in the broad quantitative literature summarized by NIJ, Migration Policy Institute, PNAS and other sources [1] [5] [2].