How have crime trends involving undocumented immigrants changed in the U.S. over the past 20 years?
Executive summary
Research over the past two decades shows that undocumented immigrants in the U.S. are, on average, less likely to be arrested or incarcerated than U.S.-born citizens and that rising immigration since the 1980s coincided with a large national drop in crime [1] [2]. Studies that can separate undocumented from documented immigrants—most notably Texas arrest-data work—find lower offending rates for undocumented people across violent, drug and property categories [3] [1].
1. The headline: more immigrants, less crime — national trend and key numbers
Scholars observe a broad “immigration effect”: the immigrant share of the population more than doubled since 1980 while overall crime rates fell sharply—one analysis puts the total crime rate down roughly 60% between 1980 and 2022 as immigrant share rose from 6.2% to 13.9% [2]. Large, peer‑reviewed studies and government summaries report that undocumented immigrants are arrested at substantially lower rates than U.S.-born citizens—less than half for violent and drug crimes and about one-quarter for property crimes in the Texas-based analysis publicized by the National Institute of Justice [1] [3].
2. Data that isolates undocumented populations: what the Texas studies show
A rare strength in the literature comes from Texas Department of Public Safety arrest records, which allow researchers to separate undocumented from documented immigrants and U.S.-born people. That work finds robust differences: undocumented offenders have lower arrest rates across most categories, with the exceptions that homicide rates were similar and some variation by offense type exists [3] [1]. The PNAS/Texas analyses also emphasize the sensitivity checks—alternative population estimates and offense definitions do not erase the pattern [3].
3. Why evidence and rhetoric diverge: measurement, enforcement and politics
Experts warn that headlines and political claims often conflate enforcement contacts with underlying crime risk. Government “criminal alien” counts reflect arrests of individuals who may have prior convictions recorded elsewhere and are shaped by enforcement priorities; federal and local booking practices can therefore overstate criminality tied to immigration status in some datasets [4] [3]. Advocacy groups and commentators also note that political actors selectively cite enforcement tallies while ignoring broader academic analyses showing lower rates for immigrants [2] [5].
4. Area variation, timeframes and the limits of the evidence
Available research shows consistent patterns across many studies but also important limits: much national-level evidence uses proxies for undocumented status or combines all immigrants; studies that do distinguish undocumented people are still relatively few and often localized (Texas is a major example) so generalizing to the entire U.S. requires caution [6] [3]. Migration Policy Institute and others urge more research to confirm whether patterns observed in border states mirror those in other jurisdictions [7] [8].
5. Specifics on recent trends (post-2010 and pandemic-era fluctuations)
Researchers and policy analysts note that the dramatic rise in violence in some cities around 2020–2021 has complex causes and that increases are not clearly linked to undocumented migration; where increases occurred, some began before recent surges in arrivals and later moderated in many places [9]. The Brennan Center and migration analysts say there is “no evidence” that recent inflows caused a nationwide “migrant crime wave,” and that crime fell again in many cities after peaks [9].
6. Competing perspectives and the role of institutional agendas
Academic institutions and immigrant-rights groups emphasize empirical studies finding lower offending and incarceration rates for immigrants, framing policies that scapegoat migrants as politically motivated [2] [5]. By contrast, enforcement agencies publish “criminal alien” statistics used by some political actors to argue for stricter measures; those figures reflect convictions recorded across jurisdictions and the priorities of immigration enforcement [4] [10]. Readers should note these institutional perspectives: advocacy groups and academics stress public-safety benefits of immigration, while enforcement data are used to highlight risks—both draw on legitimate but different slices of evidence [2] [4].
7. Bottom line and what’s still unknown
The best-available studies that separate legal status find undocumented immigrants commit fewer crimes than U.S.-born people, and the long-term national correlation is that rising immigration has coincided with falling crime [1] [2]. Important gaps remain: more geographically diverse datasets that cleanly identify undocumented status across the country and nuanced work on how enforcement practices shape recorded crime rates are needed before definitive nationwide claims can be made [3] [7].
Limitations: available sources do not mention a single, nationwide dataset that fully and consistently identifies undocumented status across all states and years; much of the strongest evidence derives from specific state or city records [3] [7].