What evidence and datasets exist to quantify displacement, fatalities, and humanitarian impact in Nigeria (2010–2025)?
Executive summary
Multiple peer-reviewed studies, international agencies and humanitarian coordination bodies maintain datasets quantifying displacement, fatalities and humanitarian impact in Nigeria from 2010–2025. Key sources include IOM’s Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM) and downloadable site/location assessments (available on HDX) for detailed IDP counts and site-level profiles [1] [2], OCHA’s 2025 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan estimating ~2.3 million IDPs by end‑2024 and projecting 33 million people facing food insecurity in 2025 [3], and conflict‑event datasets and analyses such as ACLED and multiple peer‑reviewed studies tracking fatalities and spatial patterns [4] [5].
1. Where the core displacement data live — IOM DTM and HDX downloads
The most operational, regularly updated displacement data come from IOM’s Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM) in Nigeria, which issues rounded site and location assessments and flash reports; those assessment spreadsheets and round reports are hosted on Humanitarian Data Exchange (HDX) and DTM’s site and include Round‑level site assessments and population figures for north‑east, north‑west and north‑central Nigeria [1] [2] [6]. These products provide time‑series of IDP, returnee and site profiles useful for sub‑national analysis [2].
2. National and inter‑agency overviews — OCHA, UNHCR, IOM planning figures
OCHA’s Nigeria 2025 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan compiles multi‑agency estimates and states about 2.3 million internally displaced persons recorded by end‑2024 with Borno hosting the majority [3]. UNHCR’s country pages and reports supply refugee and asylum‑seeker counts and planning figures for forced displacement and statelessness, and UNHCR’s data portal provides downloadable displacement overviews [7] [8]. IOM’s Nigeria Crisis Response pages contextualise DTM figures alongside flood and climate impact reporting [9].
3. Fatalities and conflict event databases — ACLED, academic papers, and investigative reports
Long‑running conflict and fatality tracking is available through event‑level datasets and academic syntheses. ACLED (used in multiple analyses) and research papers document thousands of violent deaths annually since 2010, with several studies reporting fatalities exceeding 10,000 in recent years and mapping spatiotemporal hotspots in Borno and other states [4] [10]. Scientific Reports and other peer‑reviewed articles model conflict‑related fatalities and spatial patterns using event datasets and public health data [5] [11].
4. Humanitarian impact metrics beyond counts — food insecurity, malnutrition, services
Humanitarian need is tracked through sectoral indicators: OCHA and WFP/IPC projections estimate tens of millions at risk of food insecurity (OCHA cites ~33 million projected food insecure in 2025; WFP/UN reporting cites nearly 31–35 million facing acute hunger in 2025) and OCHA lists 7.8 million people needing humanitarian assistance with a target reach of 3.6 million [12] [13] [14] [3]. UNICEF and other agencies publish situation reports on child nutrition, cholera and service disruptions that complement displacement and mortality datasets [15] [16].
5. Investigative and rights‑based tallies — Amnesty, HRW and national bodies
Human‑rights investigations and national commissions produce alternative tallies and case‑level documentation. Amnesty International quantified at least 10,217 killings across a two‑year span (May 2023–May 2025) in its investigation across several states [17]. National Human Rights Commission figures and other watchdogs report high numbers of banditry and insurgent‑related deaths in 2025 [18]. These sources document incidents, massacres and abductions that event datasets also record but may count differently [17] [18].
6. Strengths, inconsistencies and interpretive cautions
Operational displacement data (DTM, UNHCR, OCHA) provide systematic, periodically updated counts and site profiles but vary by methodology and coverage—DTM rounds and HDX files show granular site data but are regionally focused and episodic [2] [6]. Conflict event datasets like ACLED enable event‑level fatality analysis but depend on media and partner reporting; academic syntheses point to differing annual fatality totals and hotspot definitions [4] [5]. Human‑rights reports offer in‑depth case verification but cover specific timeframes and geographies that can produce different totals from statistical sources [17].
7. Practical next steps for researchers and journalists
Combine DTM site/location assessment files on HDX for displacement time‑series [2] with OCHA’s HNO/HNRP sectoral figures for needs context [3], overlay ACLED or comparable event datasets used in peer‑reviewed studies for fatalities and incident mapping [4] [5], and use Amnesty/HRW reports for verified incident narratives and protection findings [17] [19]. Where national statistics are required, consult Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics microdata portal alongside UNHCR/DTM for triangulation [20] [21].
Limitations and transparency: sources use different methods and time windows, so aggregate totals (fatalities, displaced) will vary across datasets; available sources do not mention a single reconciled, country‑wide dataset that uniformly covers 2010–2025. Use the named primary datasets cited here for reproducible analyses and document which source and round you rely on for each number [2] [3] [4].