How do DC crime trends since 2017 compare to national urban crime trends over the same period?

1. D.C.’s recent arc: a post‑peak fall that looks dramatic

Washington’s violent‑crime trajectory shows a notable peak around 2023 followed by declines in 2024 and into 2025: MPD and local reporting indicate murder counts fell after a 2023 high, carjackings and several violent categories dropped, and local mid‑2025 city releases put violent crime down by double digits through early 2025 ^{[5] [6] [7]}. The U.S. attorney’s office and city officials described violent crime in 2024–2025 reaching multi‑decade lows, a framing used repeatedly in local and national coverage ^{[8] [2]}.

2. How researchers place D.C. against the national urban picture

Independent researchers and the Council on Criminal Justice compared Washington to a sample of large cities and concluded D.C.’s down‑turn mirrors a national pattern: CCJ’s mid‑year 2025 report shows homicide and other violent crimes falling below pre‑pandemic levels in its sample of cities and a year‑over‑year decrease in 11 of 13 offenses through June 2025 ^{[3] [4]}. Analysts like Jeff Asher argue that D.C.’s decline since the 2023 peak roughly tracks pre‑COVID trends and aligns with declines seen elsewhere ^{[5] [9]}.

3. Numbers, definitions and why comparisons are tricky

Comparing D.C. to national urban trends requires care: MPD produces city counts under DC Code offense definitions that do not map perfectly to FBI NIBRS/Part I totals, and MPD warns public dashboards are preliminary and subject to reclassification or unfounding ^{[10] [11]}. CCJ and other cross‑city studies use consistent, city‑level incident data to make apples‑to‑apples comparisons, but samples vary (42 cities in CCJ’s mid‑year 2025) and some national compilations (Major Cities Chiefs, MCCA) show different short‑term shifts ^{[3] [12]}.

4. Areas of agreement among sources

Major independent trackers agree on two broad points: violent crime across many large U.S. cities fell through 2023 and into 2024–mid‑2025, and D.C. has experienced meaningful declines since its 2023 spike, including lower homicide counts in the first half of 2025 versus the same period in 2024 ^{[3] [1] [5]}. CCJ’s mid‑year work explicitly finds homicide and other violent crimes below pre‑pandemic levels in their city sample ^[3].

5. Disputes, political claims and data‑quality questions

Political actors sharply disagree over the size and meaning of D.C.’s declines. The White House and critics have framed D.C. as experiencing a crisis and cited high absolute counts, while city officials point to 30‑year lows and declines reported to the FBI ^{[13] [2]}. FactCheck and other analysts flagged investigations and procedural issues—suspensions and probes into data handling—that fuel skepticism about local public dashboards even while FBI‑reported trends corroborate declines ^[1].

6. What the national data say about scope and limits

Nationally, mid‑2025 studies show declines in most violent offenses across their city samples (CCJ: 11 of 13 offenses down year‑over‑year), and other analyses report modest national declines in violent crime while property crime patterns are mixed ^{[3] [14]}. Researchers caution that city samples and reporting practices differ, and that improved, timely national data remain a work in progress ^{[3] [4]}.

7. Bottom line and what to watch next

Available reporting shows D.C.’s 2017–2022 era of higher violence gave way to a 2023 surge and then a pronounced decline through 2024–mid‑2025 that generally mirrors trends in many large U.S. cities ^{[5] [3]}. Key open questions: whether D.C.’s declines persist into late‑2025 and beyond, how much reporting and classification changes affect public dashboards, and whether national samples continue to show synchronized decreases—answers that future CCJ, MCCA and FBI/NIBRS updates will clarify ^{[10] [3] [12]}.