Which DC neighborhoods saw the largest increases or decreases in violent crime since Trump-era policing policies began?

1. What the major outlets actually report: citywide declines, neighborhood anecdotes

National and local outlets largely describe a pronounced citywide decline in violent crime in 2024–2025 — Jeff Asher and the United States Attorney’s office both report violent crime near multi‑decade lows and large year‑over‑year reductions (Asher notes violent crime down roughly 26% in early 2025 versus 2024; the U.S. Attorney’s office said 2024 violent crime was down 35% from 2023) ^{[1] [2]}. At the same time, reporting about the August 2025 federal surge focuses on visible effects in particular neighborhoods — Columbia Heights and Petworth are repeatedly cited for heavy federal presence and business disruptions, while Anacostia is highlighted as a site for Trump‑administration events and patrols — but these are descriptive snapshots rather than rigorous neighborhood trend analyses ^{[6] [3] [7]}.

2. Neighborhood‑level data exists, but reporting hasn’t produced a definitive ranking

DC’s open data portal provides geocoded, neighborhood‑cluster and ward‑level crime incident data that can be used to compute increases or decreases by neighborhood over arbitrary time windows (the data’s geography methodology was revised in 2020 to improve accuracy) ^[4]. However, mainstream articles cited here do not publish a straightforward table of "largest increases/decreases by neighborhood" since the federal policy shift; instead they show charts, selective neighborhood examples, or citywide aggregates ^{[4] [1] [2]}.

3. Short windows, federal surge, and causation problems

Multiple outlets stress the difficulty of isolating the effect of the Trump administration’s federal surge: Reuters and PBS call the impact "complicated" and note that crime was already falling in some measures before federal intervention; The Marshall Project and PBS report differing accounts about which neighborhoods saw federal activity and which saw meaningful reductions ^{[8] [3] [9]}. Short-term drops (weeks or months) can reflect seasonal patterns, reporting lags, or data‑classification choices — and the Justice Department probe into possible manipulation of MPD crime reporting further complicates attribution ^[5].

4. Anecdotes: Columbia Heights, Petworth, Anacostia and high‑crime areas

News photos and neighborhood reporting show that Columbia Heights became noticeably quieter and Petworth saw coordinated multi‑agency arrests during the August surge; the White House and some outlets cite concentrated activity in "high‑crime neighborhoods," while community leaders describe harms to small businesses and fear among immigrants ^{[6] [3] [9]}. Anacostia figures in coverage as both a site of federal appearances and increased patrols during the takeover narrative ^[10].

5. Conflicting narratives and data integrity concerns

The White House and pro‑surge commentators emphasize dramatic crime drops tied to the federal intervention, citing MPD numbers and short‑term comparisons ^{[11] [12]}. Independent analysts and nonprofit outlets warn that claims of wholesale eradication of crime are overstated and that the impact varies by offense type and neighborhood; the DOJ’s probe into whether MPD undercounted violent incidents is ongoing and raises questions about the reliability of headline figures ^{[13] [5]}.

6. How to get a definitive neighborhood ranking (what the sources point to)

To answer your original query rigorously, researchers should pull incident‑level records from the DC Open Data "Crime Incidents" dataset (which includes neighborhood cluster, ward and census tract fields after the 2020 methodology change), define the start date for "Trump‑era policing policies," and compute percent and absolute changes in violent offense counts or rates per neighborhood while adjusting for population and reporting lag ^[4]. Journalistic accounts so far have not published that full neighborhood‑by‑neighborhood ranking ^{[4] [1]}.

Conclusion and guidance for next steps

Available mainstream reporting documents citywide declines and highlights specific neighborhoods affected by the federal surge, but it does not present a validated list of the largest neighborhood increases or decreases in violent crime since the policy shift; the DC Open Data crime incidents dataset is the source you would need to analyze to produce that list ^{[4] [1]}. If you want, I can outline the exact steps and statistical choices needed to compute neighborhood rankings from the open dataset or draft a data‑analysis plan you could run (sources above identify the dataset and the reporting caveats) ^{[4] [5]}.