How do voluntary departures compare to removals (formal deportations) in DHS/ICE statistics for 2025?
Executive summary
DHS statistics in 2025 distinguish “removals” (formal orders of removal) from a broader category of “returns” that includes voluntary departures and voluntary returns; DHS has publicly claimed both large numbers of formal removals and far larger numbers of voluntary self‑departures [1] [2]. Independent analysts and NGOs caution that counting methods, incomplete public tables, and agency-level reporting differences make direct apples‑to‑apples comparisons difficult, but available public estimates show formal ICE removals in the hundreds of thousands in FY2025 while reported voluntary self‑departures—depending on DHS framing—are claimed by DHS to be in the low millions [3] [2] [4].
1. What DHS means by “voluntary” versus “removal” and why the distinction matters
DHS’s Office of Homeland Security Statistics (OHSS) defines voluntary departures/returns as departures not based on an order of removal and includes several categories—voluntary departure, voluntary return, withdrawal of application for admission, and related administrative returns—while removals are confirmed movements based on an order of removal by an immigration judge or certain DHS officials [1] [5]. That definitional split matters because DHS’s headline “left the U.S.” numbers can combine different encounter types—CBP encounters at the border, OFO administrative returns, and ICE‑effectuated removals—so a “voluntary self‑deportation” in DHS messaging can be an administrative or border return rather than a formal removal with a legal order [1] [4].
2. What the headline numbers claim for 2025 and where they come from
DHS publicly asserted that more than 2 million people had left the U.S., including roughly 1.6 million who “voluntarily self‑deported” and about 527,000 formal deportations, in an October 27, 2025 press release summarizing its enforcement results [2] [6]. Independent trackers and research groups caution those aggregates blend agency reporting streams and timeframes; for example, Migration Policy Institute (MPI) and TRAC produced much lower estimates of ICE removals for FY2025—MPI estimated about 340,000 ICE deportations for FY2025, and TRAC reported tens to hundreds of thousands of removals depending on how periods are attributed to administrations [3] [7].
3. Why independent estimates differ from DHS headlines
Analysts explain the gap partly because OHSS/agency dashboards report “total removals and returns” without always breaking out returns by agency or consistently publishing detailed monthly tables beyond early 2025, forcing researchers to reconstruct numbers from ICE biweekly spreadsheets and other partial datasets [8] [4]. That methodological opacity allows DHS to present consolidated totals that mix voluntary returns at the border, withdrawals of admission, and formal removals, inflating a single “left the U.S.” figure compared with narrower counts of removals alone [1] [4].
4. What the pattern looked like in the field in 2025 and why it matters for interpretation
Observers document a marked ramp‑up in enforcement activity—more interior transfers and removal flights were reported in 2025, and NGOs tracking ICE flights documented increases in deportation‑related air operations—indicating an operational surge that produced many formal removals while also increasing administrative returns and coerced or expedited voluntary departures [9] [3]. This operational mix means large numbers of people “leaving” can coexist with both increased formal removal orders and increased use of expedited or voluntary mechanisms—each has different legal consequences and access to due process [9] [5].
5. Bottom line: how voluntary departures compare to removals in DHS/ICE 2025 statistics
Based on DHS public claims, voluntary self‑departures outnumbered formal deportations in 2025 by multiples (DHS claimed ~1.6 million voluntary departures vs. ~527,000 deportations), but that headline ratio rests on aggregated categories and reporting choices rather than a clean separation of agency removals versus returns; independent reconstructions put ICE formal removals in the low hundreds of thousands for FY2025—substantially lower than the DHS “voluntary” total—while stressing that incomplete public data and differing definitions limit precise reconciliation [2] [3] [4]. In short: voluntary departures (broadly defined by DHS) were reported as much larger than formal removals in 2025, but the magnitude of that gap depends on counting rules and which data series one accepts as authoritative [1] [4].