Do transgender inmates present a threat to the population of female prisoners?
Executive summary
The available research shows that transgender people are dramatically overrepresented in carceral settings and are disproportionately victims of violence behind bars, but robust, generalizable evidence that transgender inmates systematically pose a greater threat to female prisoners is lacking; data are limited, context-dependent, and contested [1] [2] [3]. Policy responses that either automatically segregate transgender people or automatically house them with cisgender women are driven as much by fear, politics, and institutional risk-aversion as by clear empirical findings about comparative rates of perpetration [4] [5].
1. Transgender people in prison are concentrated, vulnerable, and frequently victimized
Multiple large surveys and reviews document that transgender people—particularly transgender women—are overrepresented in the criminal legal system and experience high rates of harassment, sexual assault, and other harms while incarcerated: the Survey of Prison Inmates estimates thousands of transgender people in state prisons and fills gaps in earlier reporting [1], the 2015 U.S. Transgender Survey and organizational reports show elevated lifetime incarceration rates among transgender people compared with the general population [6] [7], and targeted studies found alarmingly high self-reported sexual victimization among transgender women housed in men’s prisons (Jenness et al. reporting 59% in a California sample) [3].
2. Evidence on whether transgender inmates are more likely to perpetrate violence against women is limited and mixed
Systematic, nationally representative data comparing rates of sexual or physical offending by transgender inmates versus cisgender inmates are sparse; some policy debates assume high risk but the peer-reviewed literature highlights a dearth of conclusive evidence on offending differentials and calls for more rigorous study [5] [8]. Corrections-focused public-health reviews emphasize the need for quantitative data rather than relying on anecdote or politicized narratives [9] [8].
3. Carceral practices and myths shape perceived threat more than clear facts do
Courts and correctional agencies often respond to fear of risk by placing transgender women in administrative segregation or protective custody—practices documented across the US and internationally that can be indefinite and harmful [3] [8]. These responses are partly shaped by stigmatizing tropes of transgender women as predators, even as researchers note those same tropes also fuel abuse against transgender people and can obscure the reality that transgender people are frequently targets rather than initiators of violence [4] [9].
4. Female-to-female violence complicates simple risk narratives
Analyses of prison sexual assault point out that female incarcerated persons commit a substantial share of abuse against other women in custody—studies have noted that female perpetrators account for roughly half of incidents involving women—highlighting that risks in women’s facilities are not driven solely by the presence of transgender women [4]. This complicates policy choices that treat transgender presence as the primary risk vector for cisgender women.
5. Policy, politics, and public safety arguments are entangled
Public debates and some media stories emphasize rare but vivid incidents to argue for categorical exclusions or transfers; scholarly and advocacy reports counter that reforms should be evidence-based, focus on reducing overall violence, and address structural drivers that funnel transgender people into incarceration—poverty, discrimination, survival economies—rather than treating transgender identity as a proxy for criminality [2] [10]. Multiple organizations and reviews call for gender-affirming care, individualized housing assessments, and staff training as means to reduce harm for all incarcerated people [9] [2].
6. Conclusion and limits of the record
On balance, the current empirical record does not support a blanket conclusion that transgender inmates as a group pose a greater, uniform threat to female prisoners; instead, the strongest, repeatedly documented finding is that transgender people in custody are highly vulnerable to abuse and that data on perpetration are inadequate and unevenly collected [3] [8] [5]. Any definitive safety policy requires better data collection, individualized risk assessments, and reforms that reduce violence across the institution rather than relying on categorical exclusions that may be driven by stigma or political agendas [9] [4]. It should be acknowledged that gaps in national datasets and inconsistencies in reporting mean some claims about perpetration cannot be resolved from the available sources alone [5].