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How many civilian deaths occurred in Gaza during the 2023-2024 Israel-Hamas war?
Executive summary
Different institutions and studies give widely divergent totals for deaths in Gaza during the 2023–2024 Israel–Hamas war: Gaza health officials and UN-linked reporting cited tens of thousands by mid‑2024 (e.g., ~37,396 by 19 June 2024) [1], independent modelling and later studies put much higher figures (a Lancet-linked analysis estimated ~64,260 traumatic‑injury deaths through 30 June 2024) [2], and later independent surveys and counting pushed estimates into the tens of thousands more (almost 84,000 deaths through early Jan 2025 in a 2025 survey) [3]. Sources disagree on how many of those killed were civilians versus combatants; some reports say a large majority were civilians while other analyses question that breakdown or the underlying methods [4] [5] [2].
1. What the Gaza Health Ministry and UN reporting counted early on
The Gaza Health Ministry’s figures were widely cited during 2024 and reported by UN agencies: for example, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs cited the Ministry’s tally of 37,396 deaths by 19 June 2024 [1]. International agencies and many news outlets repeatedly reported Gaza’s official counts as the principal running total during much of 2024 [6] [1]. Those official tallies did not reliably distinguish civilians from fighters in publicly released aggregate totals [1].
2. Independent health‑science estimates that raised the total
Health‑science studies and modelling challenged and revised upward early official tallies. A peer‑reviewed group’s analysis published in early 2025 estimated 64,260 deaths from traumatic injury in Gaza up to 30 June 2024 — about 40% higher than the Ministry’s then‑reported number — using multiple sources including ministry data, a household survey, and social‑media obituaries [2]. The authors noted limitations in independent verification because journalists and researchers had restricted access to Gaza [2].
3. Later independent survey that reports still higher totals
A large independent household survey, reported in mid‑2025, estimated almost 84,000 deaths in Gaza between October 2023 and early January 2025 [3]. That study aimed to be the first independent survey‑based estimate covering a longer period; its figure is substantially higher than earlier ministry and modelling estimates [3]. The survey’s methodology and timeframe differ from other counts, which helps explain the variance [3].
4. Disagreement over civilian vs combatant composition
Different actors dispute how many of the dead were civilians. The UN and some agencies verified a high share of women and children among verified victims over selected periods — for example, a UN analysis found that nearly 70% of verified victims in a six‑month window were women and children [4]. Conversely, later analyses and leaked/internal datasets prompted debate about the combatant share; for example, reporting based on Israeli military intelligence databases suggested a high fighter count, and some Western and Israeli sources questioned how deaths were classified [5] [7]. In short, available sources disagree and use different methods to separate civilians from fighters [4] [5] [2].
5. Why totals differ: methodology, access and political context
Counts vary because of methodology (named‑person lists vs aggregate ministry tallies vs household surveys vs modelled excess‑death estimates), access limits for independent verification, and political incentives. The Gaza Health Ministry publishes named lists and aggregate reports but has been criticised for methodology and political control, while Israeli officials and some analysts have questioned those figures [1] [8]. Independent studies attempted to compensate for missing data [2] [3]. The contested environment — restricted journalistic access and the fact that the Gaza ministry is run by Hamas — is explicitly acknowledged in multiple sources and complicates verification [1] [2] [8].
6. What authoritative bodies have concluded about civilian harm
United Nations human‑rights instruments investigated patterns of civilian harm and reported high proportions of women and children among verified victims in specified periods, and the UN’s independent commissions have described possible war crimes by both sides [4] [9]. These findings focus on the nature of the killings and patterns of civilian impact rather than producing a single, universally accepted overall death total [4] [9].
7. Bottom line and how to read the numbers
There is no single universally accepted civilian death count in the public record contained in these sources: ministry and UN‑reported totals gave tens of thousands by mid‑2024 (e.g., ~37,396 by 19 June 2024) [1]; rigorous modelling suggested ~64,260 traumatic‑injury deaths through 30 June 2024 [2]; and a later independent survey estimated almost 84,000 deaths through early January 2025 [3]. Sources disagree on the civilian-versus‑combatant split: UN verification found very high shares of women and children in some periods [4], while other analyses and internal datasets raised questions about classification [5] [2]. Readers should treat any single headline figure as reflecting a specific method and timeframe and consult multiple counts and methodological notes when assessing civilian fatalities [1] [2] [3].
Limitations: available sources do not provide a single, definitive civilian death number covering the whole conflict period, and the sources cited use differing timeframes and methods [1] [2] [3].