What are the varying official civilian death tolls for Gaza reported by Israel, Hamas, UN agencies, and NGOs during the 2023–2024 conflict?
Executive summary
Different official and institutional actors reported widely divergent civilian death tolls for Gaza during the 2023–2024 conflict: Gaza’s Health Ministry (cited by UN agencies) reported tens of thousands of deaths (e.g., 37,396 by 19 June 2024) [1], UN offices and reports tracked similar high figures and noted verification challenges [2] [3], while Israel challenged those counts and offered lower or contested estimates of militant versus civilian deaths [4]. Human-rights bodies and NGOs documented large civilian losses (e.g., OHCHR citing 34,535 deaths to 30 April 2024 from Palestinian health data) and stressed verification limits and methodological disputes [5] [1].
1. Gaza Health Ministry / De facto authorities: the high-end official counts
Gaza’s Health Ministry — the source most often quoted by UN agencies and humanitarian reporting — published the largest cumulative tolls: The Lancet cited OCHA’s reporting of 37,396 killed in Gaza by 19 June 2024 as coming from the Gaza Health Ministry [1]. UN meetings later repeated ministry figures in briefings (for example, more than 45,000 by September–December 2024 was quoted from Gaza’s health ministry in UN press coverage) [6]. UN and academic commentators accepted those figures as the principal working totals while noting identification gaps and many unidentified bodies [1].
2. United Nations agencies and humanitarians: reliance plus caution
UN bodies used Gaza Health Ministry totals in public briefings and data products while signalling verification caveats. OCHA’s casualties page said major-hostilities casualty tallies would be added only after independent verification and that “reported figures” are included in situation updates until then [2]. UN graphics and briefings reproduced high totals and humanitarian contexts (food insecurity, destruction), but accompanying material flagged verification limitations and the difficulty of counting in heavily damaged areas [3] [2].
3. OHCHR and human-rights reporting: large civilian tolls, legal framing
The UN Human Rights Office’s six‑month update described “massive and unprecedented numbers of casualties,” and cited Palestinian Ministry totals — for example, 34,535 killed and 77,704 injured between 7 October 2023 and 30 April 2024 — while placing the tolls in legal and human-rights analyses [5]. OHCHR’s reporting framed casualties alongside allegations of indiscriminate and disproportionate attacks and referenced court orders and inquiries [5].
4. Israel: contesting methodologies and separating militants from civilians
Israeli authorities repeatedly disputed elements of Gaza’s public tolls and challenged classifications, arguing figures might be inflated or that many recorded as civilians were combatants; Israel provided its own counts of militants killed at different times (e.g., IDF statements of thousands of “Hamas fighters” killed) but did not publish a single consolidated civilian-death figure comparable to the Gaza Health Ministry’s totals [4]. Reporting shows the IDF claimed kills of militants in stages (5,000 reported in early December 2023; later statements of 8,000; and wider variations reported in 2024–2025), and Israeli commentators and some military figures questioned those tallies’ internal consistency [4].
5. NGOs, academic studies and secondary tallies: verification work and lower/adjusted estimates
Independent groups and researchers (NGOs like Airwars; academic teams cited in Lancet and Costs of War analyses) performed incident-by-incident reviews and capture–recapture or verification studies that sometimes adjusted numbers downward or highlighted missing names and unidentified bodies; The Lancet and related studies noted that a significant share of reported deaths were unidentified and that many bodies likely remain under rubble, complicating any reconciliation [1] [7]. NGO-derived incident tallies varied by methodology and often found fewer identified names than ministry lists but acknowledged gaps and methodological trade-offs [1] [7].
6. Why the discrepancies persist: methodology, access and incentives
All sources agree counting is technically hard: mass destruction, large numbers of unidentified bodies, changing methodologies by local authorities, and limited independent access mean figures diverge [1] [2]. The Lancet and Costs of War materials record that ministry counts include unidentified bodies and that independent verification is partial; Israeli intelligence and other actors have questioned Hamas-run ministry methodology and political incentives to report higher civilian counts, while UN agencies and some Western intelligence accepted or used the ministry’s totals for operational planning [1] [7] [4].
7. What the reporting does and does not resolve
Available sources show clear numerical ranges used by different actors — Gaza’s Health Ministry/UN: tens of thousands (e.g., ~37,396 by 19 June 2024) [1]; OHCHR citing ~34,535 to 30 April 2024 [5]; Israeli statements focusing on militant casualties and disputing some ministry methods without publishing a single alternative consolidated civilian toll [4]. Sources do not provide a single reconciled civilian-death number accepted by all parties; independent verification efforts are ongoing and published analyses stress both the scale of loss and the uncertainties in classification [1] [7] [2].
Limitations: this summary uses only the provided reporting, which itself notes methodological disputes, unidentified bodies, and access limits that prevent a definitive, uncontested civilian-death figure [1] [2].