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Has crime in the US gone down since Trump
Executive summary
Available reporting shows violent crime and homicides that rose around 2020–2021 have fallen in 2023–2025, with several city- and national-level data series recording substantial declines (examples: murders down ~21.6% in early 2025 per AH Datalytics; Major Cities Chiefs Association found homicides down ~19% in first nine months of 2025) [1] [2]. However, experts and advocacy groups disagree about causes and about attributing the decline to President Trump’s policies; some federal and state releases credit enforcement actions while many analysts say the drop began before his 2025 inauguration and is linked to broader post‑pandemic trends and local interventions [3] [4] [5].
1. The basic data: yes — many measures show declines since Trump’s return to office
Multiple contemporaneous data aggregations and local police reports show homicide and violent‑crime counts falling in 2024 and continuing into 2025: AH Datalytics reported murders were 21.6% lower in the first three months of 2025 than the same period in 2024 (a figure cited by FactCheck.org), and a Major Cities Chiefs Association compilation found overall homicides down about 19% in the first nine months of 2025 versus 2024 [1] [2]. The Council on Criminal Justice’s mid‑year update also documents mixed but often downward trends across a set of cities through June 2025 [6].
2. Timing matters: the decline largely began before Trump’s 2025 policies
Several analysts note the decline accelerated in 2023 and continued through 2024 — before Trump’s second‑term policies could plausibly have taken effect — which complicates causal claims that the president “made” crime fall [4] [5]. The Brookings‑linked analysis and crime analysts quoted in reporting emphasize economic and local policing‑and‑prevention changes as plausible drivers of the 2023–2025 downward movement rather than immediate federal action [5] [6].
3. Competing explanations: enforcement vs. prevention vs. broader trends
The Department of Homeland Security and the White House point to recent federal enforcement, deportations and operations to remove “dangerous” noncitizens and to surge arrests as contributing to declines, citing metrics like a 17% homicide drop through June 2025 across a 30‑city sample and other reductions in violent offenses [3]. Conversely, researchers and organizations such as the Vera Institute and independent crime analysts warn that federal “law‑and‑order” policies, cuts to prevention programs, or political theatre are not shown as the primary drivers — and that many declines are continuations of local trends and interventions like community violence intervention efforts [4] [5].
4. Geographic nuance: not every city follows the national pattern
Big‑city and regional variation is large: several cities (Chicago, D.C., Memphis, Portland) recorded sharp homicide declines in 2025, while some places — notably Atlanta in one review — showed sizable increases in violent crime in the same window (Atlanta +19.4% in first nine months of 2025) [2]. The Council on Criminal Justice warns of a “mix of increases and decreases” across its city sample, underscoring that national averages mask local divergences [6].
5. Data sources and limits: why claims about “since Trump” are fragile
National FBI estimates lag by many months; researchers rely on aggregated local agency feeds, independent analysts (e.g., AH Datalytics) and city compilations for timelier snapshots — each has strengths and gaps. FactCheck.org notes Trump has sometimes cited local or preliminary agency counts that he previously derided as “fake news,” and major organizations caution that short‑term early‑year comparisons can overstate durable change [1] [7]. The Council on Criminal Justice specifically calls for better, faster, standardized national monitoring to avoid misinterpretation [6].
6. Politics and perception: crime feelings diverge from statistics
Public perception does not always track the data: Gallup and other polls show a substantial share of Americans saying crime increased even as FBI and other statistics register declines [8] [9]. Political actors exploit that gap — Trump has used crime rhetoric to justify federal deployments, while state officials and advocacy groups have framed the same statistics to argue for prevention investments or to criticize federal tactics [10] [11] [12].
Conclusion: what you can reliably say
Available sources show that many measures of violent crime and homicide fell in 2024 and into 2025 (examples: 21.6% early‑2025 drop by AH Datalytics; ~19% MCCA decline for first nine months of 2025), but causation is contested: some federal statements credit enforcement actions while analysts, research institutions and advocacy groups point to pre‑existing downward trends, local interventions, and complex socioeconomic factors — meaning simple claims that “crime has gone down since Trump” are factually supported in counts but remain disputed in explanation [1] [2] [4] [3] [5] [6].