How many ICE captures are criminals, and what kind
Executive summary
Recent reporting shows two sharply divergent narratives about who ICE is arresting: federal officials and DHS communications assert that a large majority of arrests target people with criminal convictions or pending charges (officially cited as about 70%) [1] [2], while independent analyses of ICE and detention data find that roughly three quarters of people held in ICE detention in late 2025 had no criminal convictions and that only a small share—about 5%—had violent convictions [3] [4] [5] [6].
1. What the agency says: “worst of the worst” and a 70% criminal figure
Department of Homeland Security and ICE messaging has repeatedly framed recent enforcement as aimed at the “worst of the worst,” and officials have claimed roughly 70% of undocumented immigrants ICE arrested have criminal convictions or pending criminal charges to justify expanded operations [1] [2], a statistic DHS spokeswoman McLaughlin called a counter to critics [2]; DHS press releases also list high‑profile removals of people wanted for serious crimes at home or abroad and note ICE’s authority to execute criminal arrests and target fugitives and suspects of serious offenses [7] [1].
2. What data aggregators and researchers find: large share without convictions
Independent data projects and research groups report the opposite pattern in ICE detention rosters: as of late 2025, ICE held tens of thousands of people and several data snapshots show roughly 69–75% of detainees had no criminal conviction on file, with about 73.6% of those in one TRAC count reported as having no conviction [3] [4] [7]; the Cato Institute analysis that circulated in late 2025 concluded about 73% had no convictions and only about 5% had violent convictions [6] [8] [5].
3. Growth and recent enforcement shifts: non‑criminals driving increases
Analysts tracking year‑over‑year change say most of the surge in ICE book‑ins since fall 2024 and into FY2026 came from people without criminal convictions: one analysis attributed 72–80% of the growth to non‑criminal detainees and another said 92% of detention growth was driven by people with no criminal convictions or only pending charges [6] [9] [8], while Cato highlighted that much of the increase in daily book‑ins after October 2024 was among people without criminal convictions [6].
4. Definitions, data scope and why numbers diverge
Part of the contradiction stems from definitions and data sources: DHS and ICE sometimes combine people with pending charges, immigration‑related offenses (like unlawful reentry or overstays), and those wanted for crimes abroad into a “criminal” framing [7] [2], whereas independent counts of detainees often categorize by U.S. criminal convictions recorded in ICE or court data and therefore show many detainees have no U.S. conviction on file [7] [3]; reporting also notes ICE’s public statistics and internal data releases have limits—some datasets exclude Border Patrol arrests, short‑term holds, or do not break out offense types in consistent ways—making apples‑to‑apples comparison difficult [6] [7] [10].
5. What kinds of crimes are actually present among those with convictions or charges
When convictions or charges are present they range widely: a small minority are violent crimes—about 5% of detainees had violent convictions in the Cato review—other convictions include property or immigration offenses, pending minor charges that are frequently dismissed, and a subset of high‑profile removals for serious offenses like homicide, sexual assault, trafficking or international fugitives noted by ICE [6] [5] [7] [1]; local reporting shows variation by jurisdiction—some states report a majority of ICE arrests there involve people with convictions or pending charges while national detention aggregates tell a different story [11] [3].
6. Bottom line and limits of the record
The clearest, supported answer is that estimates vary by source and definition: DHS messaging and some local arrest tallies claim about 70% of recent ICE arrests involve people with criminal convictions or pending charges [1] [2], but multiple independent datasets and analyses of ICE detention files for late 2025 show roughly 69–75% of people in detention had no criminal conviction and only about 5% had violent convictions [3] [4] [6] [5]; reconciliation of these claims requires standardized, transparent breakdowns from ICE that separate convictions, pending charges, immigration‑only offenses, and international warrants—data that public releases to date do not consistently provide [7] [10].