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How many people have self deported since the Trump Administration took over in 2025
Executive summary
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) under the Trump administration has publicly claimed that roughly 1.6 million people "self‑deported" (part of a broader figure of 2 million people who have left the U.S.) since January 20, 2025 (DHS statements cite 1.6 million self‑deportations and over 400,000 formal deportations) [1] [2]. Independent outlets and analysts warn DHS’s methodology and counts are unconventional and disputed; reporting shows smaller counts for formal removals and raises questions about how “self‑deportation” is defined and measured [3] [4].
1. DHS’s headline number: 1.6 million self‑deportations
DHS press releases and spokespeople have repeatedly said about 1.6 million people voluntarily left the United States—characterized as “self‑deportations”—and that, combined with more than 400,000 formal removals, totals roughly 2 million departures since January 20, 2025 [1] [2]. Secretary Kristi Noem and other DHS officials promoted the 1.6 million figure in mid‑2025 as evidence their enforcement and outreach (including the CBP Home app and cash/flight offers) were inducing voluntary departures [5] [6].
2. What DHS counts and how the government framed voluntary departures
DHS materials describe a campaign—public messaging, the CBP Home app, and even offers of a free flight and $1,000—to encourage people without lawful status to leave voluntarily, and DHS cites those initiatives when reporting the self‑deportation numbers [2] [7]. DHS statements link the decline in the measured immigrant population to those departures, framing them as an enforcement success [1] [8].
3. Independent reporting: formal removals are far lower and methodology is questioned
Independent reporting and analysis show formal deportations (“removals”) recorded by ICE are much smaller than DHS’s headline totals. For example, Newsweek’s analysis of ICE FOIA data found ICE deportations reported through July 31, 2025 were tens of thousands (for ICE detention‑center removals the figure cited was 145,419 as of that date) —far below DHS’s cumulative claims—and cautioned that voluntary departures remain “relatively meager” in ICE’s own records [3]. Axios and other analysts note DHS used an "unorthodox" methodology to combine multiple datasets and population estimates to reach the 2 million figure, and call for transparency about definitions and data sources [4].
4. Demographic and census context: immigrant population fell but not a one‑to‑one proof
Non‑DHS sources document a drop in the overall immigrant population: Pew Research and reporting summarized by CalMatters noted the U.S. foreign‑born population fell from about 53.3 million in January 2025 to about 51.9 million by June 2025—a decline of roughly 1.4 million—suggesting substantial net departures or reclassification in months after the inauguration [8]. That 1.4 million change is similar in scale to DHS’s claimed 1.6 million voluntary departures, but CalMatters and Pew data cannot by themselves attribute all of that decline to “self‑deportation” as opposed to other factors [8]. Available sources do not mention a direct, transparent reconciliation by DHS between its self‑deportation claim and independent population estimates.
5. Critics’ perspective: headline numbers as political messaging
Multiple organizations and reporters argue the administration’s rhetoric and presentation serve a political objective—demonstrating “mass deportation” progress—while relying on unconventional counting to amplify impact. TRAC, American Immigration Council, Axios and other outlets say the administration has run a media campaign to publicize enforcement claims and that the 2 million figure relies partly on population‑change estimates and new definitions rather than standard removal statistics [9] [10] [4]. TRAC and the American Immigration Council emphasize that published removal records and historical metrics do not support the idea that the U.S. executed an unprecedented number of formal deportations in the time frame claimed [9] [10].
6. On‑the‑ground reporting: human stories and agency data diverge
Longform reporting and court reporting document rapid deportations and family separations, and ICE/CBP data releases show increased arrests and detentions in 2025; still, journalists note many who leave do so under duress or to avoid detention rather than through a simple voluntary program—blurring the line between “self‑deportation” and coercion [11] [5]. El País and The Guardian cite ICE data indicating hundreds of thousands of recorded removals within fiscal reporting windows—yet those totals remain lower than the administration’s combined “removed or self‑deported” figure [12] [13].
7. Bottom line and open questions
DHS claims about 1.6 million self‑deportations are documented in its own press releases and briefings [1] [2], and some independent indicators—like a roughly 1.4 million drop in Pew’s immigrant‑population estimate between January and June 2025—are comparable in scale [8]. However, ICE’s recorded removals and independent analyses report much smaller formal deportation counts and criticize DHS’s methodology for aggregating voluntary departures and population estimates without a clear, standard definition—leaving the 1.6 million self‑deportation figure contested and not fully reconciled in available public data [3] [4] [9]. Available sources do not mention a single, independently verifiable dataset that confirms DHS’s 1.6 million self‑deportation number in the same terms DHS used [1] [2].