How many ICE arrests in 2025–2026 involved individuals without criminal convictions, according to FOIA data analyzed by independent researchers?
Executive summary
Independent researchers who analyzed FOIA-obtained ICE records — principally the Deportation Data Project and affiliated analyses — conclude that roughly two-thirds of ICE arrests in the 2025–2026 reporting window involved people without criminal convictions, summarized as about 67 percent by one prominent analysis [1], a finding that different outlets translated into absolute counts (for example, reporting roughly 75,000 non‑convicted arrests out of ~220,000 total in some summaries) depending on the time frame and dataset cutoffs [2]. These conclusions rest on FOIA releases covering enforcement actions through mid‑October 2025 and subsequent processing by independent groups, but important definitional and timing caveats mean absolute counts vary across analyses [3] [4].
1. The headline: two‑thirds without convictions, per FOIA analyses
The core, repeatable finding from independent researchers working with ICE records obtained via FOIA is that a large majority of recent ICE arrests involved people who did not have recorded criminal convictions — a figure most consistently reported as about 67 percent of arrests coming from the Deportation Data Project’s FOIA dataset [1], a number echoed by multiple outlets and secondary analysts reviewing the same records [5] [6].
2. Absolute counts vary because of cutoffs, definitions and how researchers aggregate the data
Different reporting outlets translated the percentages into differing raw counts: one summary cited roughly 75,000 non‑convicted arrests out of about 220,000 total arrests in 2025 [2], TRAC and other trackers reported tens of thousands of people held without convictions in detention snapshots (for example, 48,377 of 65,735 held as of Nov. 30, 2025) [7], and some local trackers reported smaller slices such as 21,892 of 53,520 arrests having no criminal record as of late November 2025 [8]; these divergent totals reflect differences in which dates and subsets of ICE records were included [3].
3. Methodology matters: convictions vs. pending charges vs. other categories
A key source of disagreement is categorization: many datasets separate people with convictions, those with pending charges, and those with no criminal history at all, and ICE’s internal coding has shifted over 2025, complicating direct comparisons — the Prison Policy Initiative highlights that data corrections and ICE coding changes affect location and criminal‑history fields in the FOIA release [4]. Some analyses emphasize that a substantial share of people arrested had only pending charges (no convictions), while others count only final convictions, producing different headline percentages [9] [10].
4. What independent commentators and think tanks add (and how they differ)
Analysts from Cato, academic groups and independent reporters cross‑checked the FOIA records and found consistent patterns: Cato‑linked analysis and others reported that only a small share had violent convictions (around 5 percent in one account) and that large shares had no prior convictions or even no charges, depending on the snapshot [6] [1]. The New York Times’ interactive analysis of the same records stressed that in many high‑profile operations more than half of those arrested had no criminal record, reinforcing the two‑thirds/majority narrative [5].
5. Official pushback and why uncertainty persists
DHS and ICE officials publicly disputed some media interpretations: a DHS official claimed that 70 percent of ICE arrests were of people “charged or convicted” without producing the underlying spreadsheet in that statement, and ICE’s public reporting breaks out arrests by categories that are not always directly comparable to the FOIA extractions used by researchers [8] [11]. Independent analysts warn that these institutional statements and differing public dashboards produce competing narratives that hinge on the same underlying records but different definitions and cut dates [4].
6. Bottom line and journalistic caveat
The most defensible answer, based on FOIA data processed by the Deportation Data Project and analyzed by independent researchers, is that approximately 67 percent — roughly two‑thirds — of ICE arrests during the sampled 2025 window involved people without criminal convictions; absolute counts reported by outlets vary (from tens of thousands to roughly 75,000 in some media summaries) depending on the precise time frame, inclusion criteria, and how pending charges are treated [1] [2] [3]. Reporting limitations include shifting ICE coding, different snapshot dates (mid‑October vs. late November), and divergent definitions of “criminal conviction,” all of which should temper any single definitive numeric claim [4] [8].