Which U.S. administrations (2010–2025) had the largest year-over-year changes in ICE arrests and removals and why?
Executive summary
The biggest year‑over‑year declines in ICE removals occurred between the late‑2019 peak and 2021–2022, driven by changing DHS enforcement priorities and then‑new policy guidance under the Biden administration (notably policy shifts in 2021), which coincided with removals falling from about 276,122 in 2019 to roughly 81,547 in 2022 [1]. The largest and fastest increases in ICE arrests and removals in the 2010–2025 window occurred in 2025 under the second Trump administration, when publicly released ICE and third‑party tallies show arrests and deportations spiking dramatically versus the prior year—an abrupt operational surge enabled by new funding, expanded detention, and more aggressive interior arrest tactics [2] [3] [4] [5].
1. The 2019→2021/22 drop: policy reorientation and data context
Removals fell sharply after the 2019 high of 276,122 to 81,547 by 2022, a decline the Government Accountability Office highlights and ties to changing DHS policy that, starting in 2021, narrowed enforcement priorities to national security, public‑safety and border threats rather than broad interior enforcement [1]. That shift—formalized in September 2021 guidance—reduced whom ICE sought to arrest and remove and helps explain one of the largest multi‑year decreases in removals in the period under review, although GAO also warns that ICE’s public reporting understates total detentions because of exclusions in how bookings are counted [1].
2. The 2024→2025 surge under the second Trump administration: scale and tactics
Multiple trackers reported explosive year‑over‑year increases in 2025: The Guardian and other outlets documented record highs in detentions and large cumulative counts of arrests and removals through 2025, with reporting noting hundreds of thousands arrested and deported during the year [2] [3]. Independent analysts and advocacy groups reported that ICE arrested roughly 204,000 people between Oct. 1, 2024 and June 16, 2025 and that large shares had no criminal convictions, reflecting a shift to interior immigration violations as enforcement targets [5]. Observers attribute this rapid rise to an administration directive and resourcing boost that prioritized mass interior enforcement, expanded expedited removal efforts, and increased reliance on jails and detention capacity to process and hold people for removal [4] [6].
3. Mechanics behind the swings: policy, funding, and local cooperation
Year‑to‑year enforcement totals respond quickly to three levers: DHS/ICE enforcement directives (who is prioritized), available detention capacity and funding, and state and local cooperation or resistance. The 2021 policy narrowed targets and reduced removals [1], while the 2025 surge accompanied expanded detention funding, construction of temporary facilities, and more aggressive interior arrest methods such as “at‑large” arrests and workplace operations [4] [5]. Conversely, local limits on jail cooperation with ICE have historically blunted administration removal ambitions, as analyses show state and local practices materially affect the scale of removals [6].
4. Limits of the record: data gaps, release schedules, and methodological caveats
Comparisons across administrations are complicated by inconsistent public reporting, dataset limitations and release delays: OHSS and ICE publish overlapping monthly and biweekly tables but differ in what they label as “book‑in” or “removal,” and the Deportation Data Project notes omissions and evolving FOIA releases that hinder perfect time‑series continuity [7] [8] [9]. GAO explicitly found ICE understates detentions in public reports because some temporary bookings are excluded, and independent trackers have filled gaps but sometimes rely on partial releases that exclude encounters or detainers [1] [8].
5. What the pattern says about causation vs. correlation
The largest year‑over‑year declines and increases correlate closely with explicit policy shifts and resource changes: the Biden administration’s reprioritization is the best documented proximate cause of the post‑2019 drop in removals [1], while the 2025 spike aligns with rapid administrative retooling—new funding, expanded detention capacity, and operational tactics—recorded by ICE and by investigative trackers [4] [2]. That said, critics point to legal challenges (e.g., court blocks on expanded expedited removal) and state resistance that modulate outcomes, underscoring that enforcement totals are the product of policy, law, local politics and data reporting practices [10] [6].