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How many people did ICE deport in 2025 and how does that number compare to 2024 and 2023?
Executive summary
ICE removals in 2025 are reported very differently across sources: the Migration Policy Institute estimates about 340,000 ICE deportations in FY2025 (through September) while DHS statements and administration briefings claim "more than 400,000–527,000" deportations or removals tied to broader DHS tallies that mix voluntary self‑deportations and agency deportations [1] [2] [3]. By contrast, ICE’s FY2024 figure — often used as the 2024 baseline — was about 271,000 removals, roughly a 25–25.5% increase versus MPI’s FY2025 ICE figure but far below some DHS claims [4] [1] [2].
1. What the experts estimate for ICE deportations in 2025 — a cautious, data‑based number
Independent analysts who compile ICE and DHS operational data estimate ICE conducted roughly 340,000 removals in FY2025, a figure produced by the Migration Policy Institute after assembling publicly available ICE numbers and related datasets [1]. MPI’s estimate focuses on formal ICE removals (including people with final orders and detained individuals taking voluntary departures) and is framed as the best public estimate based on available agency reporting [1].
2. What DHS and administration statements report — larger, mixed tallies
DHS and some administration releases have presented much higher "removals" totals for 2025 — often more than 400,000 and in one release claiming "more than 527,000" removed — but those statements aggregate different categories, including voluntary self‑deportations and returns tracked outside ICE’s classic removal metric [3] [2]. Axios and other outlets note DHS’s 2‑million figure relies heavily on an estimated 1.6 million self‑deportations, leaving a smaller share as formal deportations [5] [3].
3. How 2025 compares to 2024 and 2023 using ICE’s published/baseline numbers
ICE’s official FY2024 removals were about 271,484, the highest in nearly a decade and reported as roughly a 90% increase over FY2023; that FY2024 figure is the common 2024 baseline cited by news outlets and analysts [4]. Comparing MPI’s FY2025 estimate of ~340,000 removals to ICE’s FY2024 total implies a further increase (roughly +25% versus 271,484), but this increase is substantially smaller than what DHS’s broader claims imply [1] [4].
4. Why tallies diverge — definitions, voluntary departures and interagency counting
The core reason for divergent totals is definition and data scope. MPI and ICE‑derived tallies emphasize formal ICE "removals" (administrative removals, deportations following final orders, and detained voluntary departures). DHS statements combine ICE numbers with CBP returns, expulsions or “self‑deportations” identified in surveys or other operational tallies — producing much larger headline counts [1] [3] [2]. Analysts and outlets warn these broader aggregates can be misleading if compared directly to ICE removals from prior years [5].
5. Independent critiques and context on enforcement capacity
Some watchdog and research groups say that despite media and administration rhetoric, operational limits — detention capacity, diplomatic acceptance of deportees, and court injunctions — constrain how quickly ICE can scale removals, and early‑period data did not show a sudden surge above recent rates in some analyses [6] [7]. Others point to dramatically higher detention populations and increased flight activity as evidence the agency has been more active in FY2025 [8] [9]. Both perspectives cite ICE data but differ on interpreting removals versus arrests, flights, and detention throughput [6] [8] [9].
6. Practical takeaway and caveats for readers
If you want a conservative, apples‑to‑apples comparison with past years, use ICE’s removals figure for FY2024 (~271,484) and MPI’s FY2025 estimate (~340,000) to infer an increase; using DHS’s broader public messaging will produce much larger totals (400,000–527,000 or more) because those counts mix voluntary departures and other categories [4] [1] [2]. Available sources do not mention a single, reconciled official ICE count for all of calendar 2025 that unambiguously matches the DHS‑wide headlines, so readers should treat the higher administration totals and the MPI/ICE‑derived totals as answering different questions [3] [1].
7. What to watch next
Look for ICE’s full FY2025 annual report and the OHSS monthly Persist dataset updates for a reconciled, agency‑level accounting; researchers note those tables are the official statistical system and are updated monthly, which will clarify year‑end counts and help reconcile DHS aggregated claims with ICE operational removals [10] [11]. In the interim, expect continued discrepancy between administration press claims and independent estimates driven by differing definitions and inclusion of self‑deportations [5] [3].