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Fact check: Which administration had a higher rate of ICE deportations per year, Trump or Biden?
Executive Summary
The available analyses and datasets show that the Biden administration recorded a higher annual rate of verified ICE removals than the Trump administration’s documented average. Differences in counting methods — including whether turn‑aways, pre‑border "expulsions," or ICE removals are included — drive many of the contradictory public claims, so comparing like‑for‑like ICE removals shows Biden’s pace exceeded Trump’s [1] [2] [3].
1. Sharp Claims, Competing Numbers: Who Says What and Why This Matters
Multiple sources present competing headline figures: the Trump team’s public tally of hundreds of thousands of removals since January 2025 is presented as a major achievement, while independent trackers and policy analysts point to larger single‑year removal totals under Biden, especially fiscal 2024. The Independent and Guardian analyses warn that some Trump figures mix different categories of departures — such as visa denials, turn‑backs at ports of entry, and self‑deportations — with routine ICE removals, inflating headline counts relative to the official removal metric used by Migration Policy Institute and others [3] [4]. This matters because public debates and policy comparisons hinge on whether you measure ICE removals only or a broader set of enforcement outcomes that state or campaign sources may aggregate differently [5] [3].
2. The Data Snapshot: What the Numbers Reported Actually Show
Independent datasets and mainstream fact checks converge on a central finding: Biden’s administration recorded exceptionally high removal totals in fiscal 2024, with sources citing roughly 685,000 removals for that year and monthly averages near 57,000 deportations [3] [6]. By contrast, documented historical averages from Trump’s prior presidency and through his second‑term claims indicate substantially lower verified ICE removal rates — Trump’s first term averaged roughly 525,000 per year, and reported 2025 tallies cited by trackers like Wikipedia and The Guardian point to totals that, while contested, fall short of Biden’s single‑year peak [2] [6]. Newsweek and Migration Policy Institute pieces echo that when counting verified ICE removals, Biden’s pace surpasses Trump’s [1] [5].
3. Counting Rules: Why “Deportations” Isn’t a Single, Clear Metric
The dispute largely comes down to definitions. One camp reports “removals” — ICE actions removing noncitizens from the country — while another aggregates removals with administrative refusals, expedited returns at the border, and voluntary self‑departures. Sources highlight that Trump administration statements sometimes include turn‑aways and non‑ICE departures in total counts, yielding higher headline numbers that are not directly comparable to the ICE removal metric used by MPI and federal reporting [3] [7]. Fact‑checking outlets emphasize that accurate year‑over‑year comparisons require consistent metrics; when both administrations are measured by ICE removal totals, Biden’s reported annual figures are higher [1] [2].
4. Time Frames and Averages: Annualizing the Figures Changes the Story
Averages and fiscal versus calendar year framing alter perceptions. Analyses that annualize Biden’s multiyear totals — for example, over 4.6 million removals from January 2021 through November 2024 — produce a per‑year figure near 1.18 million, but other sources break out fiscal 2024 as the clear spike with about 685,000 removals that year [2] [6]. Trump’s historical average across his first four years sits near 525,000 per year by the calculations cited in Newsweek and related analysis, and Trump’s 2025 claims, according to independent trackers, do not consistently meet Biden’s single‑year peak when restricted to verified ICE removals [2] [4]. These temporal framings explain why both sides can plausibly claim to “have deported more” depending on the period and metric chosen.
5. Motives and Messaging: Where Political Claims Diverge from Independent Counting
Political actors have incentives to present the most favorable interpretation of enforcement outcomes. Analysts note that campaign and administration statements often emphasize cumulative, headline figures that are rhetorically powerful but methodologically mixed, whereas independent organizations and fact checkers prioritize consistent, well‑defined metrics [3] [1]. Media trackers and policy researchers call this out: claims of “record” deportations require scrutiny of whether the figure represents ICE removals alone or an amalgam of removal‑adjacent actions. Sources from independent policy centers and reputable news outlets repeatedly flag this dynamic, urging readers to compare apples to apples by focusing on standard ICE removal statistics for an accurate cross‑administration comparison [5] [4].
6. Bottom Line: Who Had the Higher Annual ICE Deportation Rate?
When the comparison is restricted to verified ICE removals and consistent time frames, the evidence shows the Biden administration recorded a higher annual removal rate than the Trump administration. Multiple fact checks and policy analyses cite Biden’s fiscal 2024 and multiyear removal totals as exceeding Trump’s documented averages, while critiques of Trump’s higher headline totals point out inclusions of non‑ICE categories that inflate his counts [1] [2] [3]. The core takeaway is that the apparent contradiction in public statements is attributable less to conflicting facts than to divergent counting methods and time frames; comparing like with like gives Biden the higher ICE removal rate.