How do ICE detention death rates compare to comparable detention systems (federal prisons, state jails) each year?
Executive summary
A direct apples‑to‑apples comparison is elusive, but available reporting shows that ICE’s deaths-per-capita figures have historically been far lower than the overall U.S. prison mortality rate when expressed as deaths per 100,000 people, even as absolute in‑custody deaths and high‑profile batches of fatalities have drawn intense scrutiny in recent years [1] [2]. Differences in population turnover, reporting windows, oversight, and the use of local jails and contractors make year‑by‑year comparisons fraught; recent spikes in 2025 — 32 deaths — have raised alarms despite agency claims the system’s death rate remains extremely low [3] [4] [5].
1. How reporters measure “death rates” and why the numbers diverge
Calculating a mortality rate requires a consistent denominator and timeframe, but ICE custody is unusually transient: its average daily population and rapid turnover differ sharply from the longer‑term populations in federal and state prisons, complicating per‑100,000 comparisons; ICE itself notes it oversees a highly transient and diverse population [6]. Newsweek’s comparative math cited a 2019 prison‑system mortality of about 259 deaths per 100,000 inmates (based on DOJ totals) versus an estimated 21.3 deaths per 100,000 for ICE detainees at current detainee counts — a gap that largely reflects shorter stays and different population mixes, not necessarily better medical care [1]. DHS and ICE, however, have framed the metric differently, citing an extremely low percentage death rate (0.00007%) over the last decade to argue custody deaths are rare; that figure is presented without the same per‑100,000 framing and is disputed by advocates who track raw in‑custody fatalities [5].
2. Yearly trends in ICE deaths — decline, then a dramatic 2025 rise
Peer‑reviewed analysis shows ICE death rates fell after the COVID peak, with FY2021–2023 showing fewer deaths and a change in causes (for example, a higher share from cardiac arrest) relative to earlier periods; authors credit releases of medically vulnerable people and court orders among possible causes [2]. But reporting from The Guardian and watchdogs documents 32 deaths in 2025 — nearly three times the number in 2024 and the most since 2004 — a raw increase that media and oversight groups called historic and alarming [3] [4]. Advocacy organizations and nonprofits likewise report clusters of recent deaths and argue many were preventable, citing studies that found a high share of prior ICE deaths likely avoidable with adequate care [7] [8].
3. How ICE compares to federal prisons and state jails, year by year
Available sources give snapshots rather than a complete, consistent year‑by‑year table across systems: a 2019 DOJ‑based figure for prisons (259 per 100,000) is frequently cited alongside an ICE estimate that worked out to about 21.3 per 100,000 at the time — illustrating that, on a per‑100,000 basis, ICE historically registered lower mortality than the prison system — but those comparisons must be read with caveats about differing lengths of stay, age and health profiles, and transfer practices [1] [6]. Independent analyses and advocacy reports emphasize that lower per‑100,000 rates do not negate systemic problems in ICE facilities, including alleged medical neglect and failures of oversight that, advocates say, have produced preventable deaths across multiple years [8] [7].
4. Oversight, inspections and the context behind the numbers
Oversight activity matters to interpreting year‑to‑year shifts: reporting found ICE inspections dropped as detention counts rose in 2025, a change watchdogs say weakens accountability precisely when facility populations expanded — a dynamic that may help explain the surge in absolute deaths even if per‑100,000 measures remain lower than prisons in some comparisons [4]. ICE and DHS maintain that medical screening and emergency care are provided and that death rates are consistent with long‑term data, but watchdogs, the ACLU, and research teams press that systemic shortcomings in medical care and reporting have long plagued detention centers and may distort official metrics [5] [8].
5. Bottom line and reporting limits
The bottom line: when framed strictly as deaths per 100,000 people, some reporters have shown ICE’s rate to be much lower than the combined state and federal prison mortality rate in certain years, but that statistical gap masks key differences in population turnover, case mix, and facility use that undercut simple comparisons [1] [6]. Simultaneously, rising absolute numbers of deaths — notably 32 in 2025 — along with inspectorate declines and persistent claims of preventable medical failures suggest that counting deaths alone does not capture the broader risks and accountability gaps present in the immigration‑detention network [3] [4] [8]. The available sources do not provide a single, authoritative year‑by‑year table comparing ICE, federal, and state systems on identical denominators, so definitive annual parity statements cannot be made from the cited reporting alone [1] [2] [4].