How have in‑custody death rates and health oversight metrics changed as ICE detention populations rose in 2024–2026?
Executive summary
As ICE detention surged in 2025, oversight activity fell and reported deaths in custody spiked, producing a higher death rate relative to the detained population and prompting alarm from advocates and watchdogs; official and independent sources differ on exact counts but converge on the direction of change [1] [2] [3]. Major watchdogs and medical reviewers say most detention deaths historically have been preventable, and they warn that declining inspections and documented violations in 2025 leave the system less able to prevent avoidable harm as populations grew [4] [5] [1].
1. The scale shift: detention population expanded sharply in 2025
ICE and multiple trackers show a steep rise in the detained population in 2025 — POGO reported 68,440 people in ICE custody as of mid‑December 2025, a 78% increase from the same point in 2024, and other summaries place end‑of‑year facility populations well above levels in 2024 [1] [6]. This expansion followed policy choices to prioritize mass interior enforcement, and ICE materials continue to present a posture of multilevel oversight even as independent reporting documents rising crowding and strain on facilities [3] [1].
2. Death counts jumped in absolute terms, with reporting discrepancies across outlets
Independent databases and major outlets reported a dramatic rise in deaths: The Guardian tracked 32 deaths in ICE custody in 2025 — the most in over two decades — while other outlets and organizations recorded increases but reported slightly different figures for 2024 and 2025, reflecting differences in timing, categorization, and disclosures [2] [7] [6]. Public trackers note that 2024 deaths were lower (Wikipedia records 11 in 2024, while some reporting cites 13), underscoring that while the upward trend is clear, exact year‑to‑year tallies vary by source and methodology [8] [9].
3. Death rates per detainees rose even stronger than headline counts suggest
Putting deaths in context of population growth shows an upward move in mortality rates: using the Guardian’s 32 deaths and POGO’s mid‑December 2025 population of 68,440 implies a mortality of roughly 4.7 deaths per 10,000 detainees in 2025, up from roughly 3.7 per 10,000 reported for 2024 in some analyses — a measurable rise in risk as detention expanded [2] [1] [9]. These calculations depend on differing denominators and timeframes that sources employ, but they consistently indicate that deaths rose faster than population increases would predict alone.
4. Health oversight metrics deteriorated as inspections and compliance reporting fell
Oversight activity plummeted even as facilities filled: POGO found a 36.25% drop in Office of Detention Oversight (ODO) inspection reports in 2025, and specific facilities that previously received two annual inspections received only one, while ICE’s own summaries continue to claim daily on‑site reviews and multilevel compliance frameworks — a contradictory picture between agency assertions and independent review data [1] [3]. ODO and related reports in 2025 also recorded medical‑care violations and broader standards breaches, including overcrowding and failures around basic needs, which correlate with conditions that increase preventable morbidity and mortality [1].
5. Systemic critiques: preventability, investigation gaps, and potential undercounting
Medical and legal investigations compiled in recent years found that an overwhelming share of detention deaths were preventable or possibly preventable with appropriate care — reports by Physicians for Human Rights, the ACLU and others estimated figures as high as 95% for prior periods — and those critiques extend into 2024–2025 coverage as deaths rose and oversight fell [4] [5] [10]. Congressional letters and watchdogs flag recurring weaknesses in death investigations, evidence preservation, and transparency, and civil‑society analysts warn some deaths may be obscured by releases before death or inconsistent reporting practices, complicating definitive accounting [8] [4].
6. Bottom line: more people detained, fewer inspections, higher mortality and greater uncertainty
Across the available reporting, the pattern is unambiguous: ICE expanded detention sharply in 2025, inspections and oversight outputs declined, documented violations of medical and detention standards rose, and deaths in custody increased both in absolute terms and as a rate relative to the detained population; however, exact counts and causal attributions vary across ICE reports, press investigations, and advocacy research, leaving unresolved questions about the full scale of preventable harms and the adequacy of agency corrective actions [1] [2] [3] [4]. Further independent, standardized data and transparent investigations will be required to turn these trendlines into conclusive accountability.