What does comprehensive ICE operational data since 2024 show about use-of-force incidents in Democratic vs. Republican jurisdictions?
Executive summary
Comprehensive public reporting since 2024 shows a marked uptick in high‑profile ICE use‑of‑force incidents during a sustained federal interior enforcement surge, with many of those operations centered in Democratic‑run cities — but there is no single publicly released, comprehensive dataset that quantifies use‑of‑force rates in Democratic versus Republican jurisdictions in a way that supports definitive causal claims [1] [2] [3]. Available sources document multiple shootings and confrontations, sharp increases in reported assaults on ICE officers, and conflicting partisan narratives about causation and justification, leaving a clear empirical gap between headline incidents and a statistically rigorous comparison [3] [4] [1].
1. What the incident reports and reporting actually show
News outlets and nonprofits have catalogued a string of use‑of‑force episodes — including at least 16 shooting incidents since the summer of 2024 with at least four fatalities cited by The Trace and summarized in TIME’s reporting — and multiple recent fatal and nonfatal encounters that prompted local investigations and protests [3]. Reporting also notes that ICE’s internal firearms and use‑of‑force committee reviewed three firearm incidents in the 12 months through September 2024 and five the year before, indicating ongoing administrative attention inside the agency even before the latest surge [5].
2. Geographic pattern: enforcement concentrated in Democratic cities
Several outlets and officials report that the administration has staged large, visible enforcement operations in bluer, Democratic‑led cities — a pattern critics and local officials cite as a cause of heightened confrontations and community backlash [1] [6] [2]. Multiple news stories tie the most contentious episodes, including the fatal Minneapolis shooting and clashes in Portland and Los Angeles, to operations in jurisdictions governed by Democrats, a fact that has both driven protests and amplified partisan messaging on the ground [7] [2].
3. Quantities and claims: assaults, shootings, and official tallies
Federal statements and DHS releases claim sharp increases in assaults on ICE personnel — a DHS release cites 19 reported assaults from Jan. 21–Nov. 21, 2024 compared with 238 in the same period in 2025, characterizing that as a 1,153% increase — while independent trackers and outlets report at least a dozen to several dozen shooting incidents linked to federal agents since the enforcement surge began [4] [3]. Those counts, however, are contested: media outlets offer lower or alternative tallies and contextual caveats, and ICE’s own internal reports show far fewer firearms reviews in earlier annual windows [3] [5].
4. Where the publicly available data stops short
None of the provided sources contains a comprehensive, peer‑reviewed dataset that compares per‑operation or per‑officer use‑of‑force rates across jurisdictions categorized by partisan control, nor do they present controlled analyses adjusting for variables like scale of operations, local cooperation, population size, or reporting standards — therefore a definitive statistical answer to Democratic vs. Republican jurisdiction differences is not possible from these materials alone [8] [3] [4]. Assertions that violence is driven primarily by “sanctuary” rhetoric or, conversely, that operations are targeted at Democratic cities are documented in political statements and press releases but are not supported here by a neutral, comprehensive dataset [4] [1].
5. Political narratives, oversight, and legal context
The partisan split over incidents is stark: Democratic mayors and governors have condemned tactics and called for investigations, while the administration and many Republicans defend agents’ actions and point to reduced illegal crossings or increased assaults on officers as justification [7] [9] [2]. Legal mechanisms exist — notably prosecutions under 18 U.S.C. § 242 for willful deprivation of rights — and have been used across administrations, but prosecutions are relatively rare and the sources emphasize historical variability in administrative responses and oversight capacity [8] [5].
6. Bottom line
Reporting since 2024 documents a concentration of ICE enforcement operations in many Democratic cities and a coincident rise in high‑visibility use‑of‑force incidents and assaults on agents, but the available sources do not provide a rigorous, comprehensive dataset that quantifies use‑of‑force incidents per operation or per capita by partisan control; therefore any firm conclusion that Democratic or Republican jurisdictions are inherently more or less prone to ICE use‑of‑force would exceed what the current public record supports [1] [3] [4] [5].